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Month: July 2010

Is Labour the party for “Unequal Constituencies”?

Is Labour the party for “Unequal Constituencies”?

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Should Straw be careful about the “gerrymandering” charge? Every so often I find myself having to explain to non-election anoraks why it is that Labour can secure an overall majority with 2.7% more votes while the Tories need a margin of 11.2%. Generally their eyes glaze over as I talk about differential turnouts etc but the point they grasp instantly is that Labour-held seats have, on average, smaller electorates than Tory or LD-held ones. This is one of the things…

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Did the Tories come a bit too well prepared?

Did the Tories come a bit too well prepared?

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BBC programme info Will the programme change our view of the coalition? There’s an intriguing snippet on Nick Robinson’s BBC blog about his programme tomorrow night on how the coalition came about. “..The Tories have been keen to downplay how prepared they were for hung Parliament negotiations. However, on the day after the polls closed, Letwin appeared to know more about Lib Dem policy than any of Nick Clegg’s negotiators. The Tories arrived at talks with a string of policy…

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Are people “mis-remembering” about voting Lib Dem?

Are people “mis-remembering” about voting Lib Dem?

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Do more say they were Yellow than actually were? We all know the big story of the general election and the polls. When the votes were counted the 23.6% GB share that the Lib Dems chalked up was much smaller than all the pre-election polls. At one point YouGov had Clegg’s party with a four point lead on 34%. Yet eleven weeks on from May 6th an interesting trend has developed. When pollsters ask how people voted they invariably find…

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What will this look like after the conference season?

What will this look like after the conference season?

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Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun 26/07/10 42 35 15 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 22/06/10 41 37 15 YouGov/Sun 21/06/10 41 33 18 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21 YouGov/Sunday Times 18/06/10…

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Is DaveM Labour’s only realistic choice?

Is DaveM Labour’s only realistic choice?

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Why I’m reducing my exposure on Ed There have been a few bits of news this week that have caused me to reconsider my betting position on Ed Miliband. Firstly there’s the campaign itself and the relentless and successful way that DaveM is pursuing the “front runner” strategy. He’s got more MPs and local parties and he also showed flair with the visit to Gillian Duffy which ended with him getting her backing. Secondly there was the argument by James…

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How votes have churned since the election

How votes have churned since the election

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Latest voting intention CON-May 6 LAB-May 6 LD-May 6 Conservative 83% 2% 6% Labour 1% 80% 15% Lib Dem 2% 2% 54% UKIP – 1% 1% Greens 1% 1% 3% BNP – – 3% Would not vote 3% 2% 2% Won’t say/don’t know 10% 12% 18% Some data from Ashcroft’s 6,000 sample Populus poll The above table showing current voting intention linked to what respondents said they did at the election is from the 6,000 sample Populus poll of marginals…

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Does the Guardian ICM poll have C38-L34-LD19?

Does the Guardian ICM poll have C38-L34-LD19?

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Guardian Have the figures been published inadvertently? My understanding is that the Guardian might be holding over its latest ICM poll because of its Afgan leaks coverage but thanks to Tim on the previous thread we can make a good guess at the numbers anyway. For it appears that the latest numbers, based on polling over the weekend, are included on the interactive graphic which I’ve reproduced above. Last time, nearly five weeks ago, it was C39-L31-LD21 – and from…

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YouGov boost for Clegg on the war’s legality?

YouGov boost for Clegg on the war’s legality?

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The Iraq War – Legal or illegal? ALL CON LAB LD Legal 24 21 39 12 Illegal 47 52 35 64 Don’t know 29 27 25 24 According to the data from the Sunday Times YouGov poll, just published the above was the response to a question on the legality of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. As can be seen there’s a sharp divide between party supporters. The precise question was: “On Wednesday the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg described…

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