But will Dave and Nick try to tough it out? One betting market where you can bet on the future of David Laws is the PoliticalSmarkets one on Who will be the first cabinet member to leave? There has been a bit of movement overnight but currently you can get a price of 17% that Laws will be first to go. Speculation about what might happen to the Treasury Secretary has yet to put him into the favourite slot –…
Is the momentum enough to see one over the line? With less than two weeks to go until nominations close, three candidates for the Labour leadership have now received the 33 nominations necessary to secure their place on the ballot: Ed and David Miliband and Ed Balls. Andy Burnham is just half way to the threshold while Diane Abbott and John McDonnell are stuck in single figures. There are still around 100 Labour MP’s yet to declare but with the…
Telegraph Will this really bring Laws down? On reading the story I’m far from convinced. There is just a whiff of homophobia about the way that this is covered and I wonder if the paper would give it the same attention if the landlord had been female. I’ve suggested to the new political betting exchange, PoliticalSmarkets, that it puts a Laws survival market up. I would bet on him remaining. Mike Smithson
Did this prevent a Tory majority? It has long been the case that in American elections, incumbency has been an important factor. Until fairly recently, that was not considered to be the case in British elections. While it was acknowledged that Liberal Democrats could build up sizeable personal followings, the general view was that it was a very minor factor in the far more numerous Conservative/Labour contests. This view must now be challenged, judging by the results from May 6th….
Thirsk & Malton Result 2005 CONSERVATIVES 20.167 (52.9%) 25,702 (51.9%) LIB DEMS 8,886 (23.3%) 9,314 (18.8%) LABOUR 5,169 (13.5%) 11,585 (23.4%) UKIP 2,502 (6.6%) 1,522 (3.1%) The Coalition takes 76% of the votes After all the expectations that the Lib Dems could see their vote squeezed in the deferred election at Thirsk & Malton the first major electoral test since the formation of the coalition has provided good news for Clegg’s party and bad news for Labour. Voting in this…
Should the Beeb have booted Alistair Campbell off the panel? This is from the BBC editors blog of Gavin Allen – editor of Question Time. “..This week, for the first time in my three years as executive editor of Question Time, we were told by Downing Street that a cabinet minister would only appear on the programme if another member of the panel was replaced. According to No 10, a senior member of the cabinet was available to do Question…
This is from some polling that Ipsos-MORI is publishing on its site tomorrow. It’s not about voting intention but perceptions of the parties that exist now in this post-election post coalition deal world. The key points for each:- The Conservative party is seen to be most professional, have the best team of leaders and to understand the problems facing Britain. Its image has improved significantly on these attributes since 2006. On the negative side it is is least likely to…
Are the Cambridge grads now out of it? Another day and more nominations come in for the Labour leadership with the two Milibands having achieved the threshold and with Ed Balls getting a tad closer to that 33 nomination target. It’s starting to look as though only the University of Oxford graduates who are running, the Milibands and Balls, are going to make it. Of the other three Abbott and Burnham both went to Cambridge while John McDonnell went to…