Tories up 3 in final ICM poll
ICM Guardian May 4 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 36% 33% LABOUR 28% 28% LIB DEMS 26% 28% Lib Dems now joint second with ComRes ComRes: ITV News/Indy May 4 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 28% 29% LIB DEMS 28% 26% Mike Smithson
Angus Reid has Labour down at 24 percent
Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Will the “Golden Rule apply again” Angus Reid/Politicalbetting May 5 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 36% 35% LABOUR 24% 23% LIB DEMS 29% 29% Lib Dems jump 4 with YouGov YouGov – the Sun May 5 May 4 CONSERVATIVES 35% 35% LABOUR 28% 30% LIB DEMS 28% 24% Labour move up three with Harris Harris- Daily Mail May 5 May 4 CONSERVATIVES 35% 36% LABOUR 29% 26% LIB DEMS 27% 28% Populus – The Times Populus/The Times May 5 Apr…
Welcome to polling convergence night
Will they all produce figures in the same broad area? Populus – The Times Populus/The Times May 5 Apr 27 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 28% 27% LIB DEMS 27% 28% TNS-BMRB TNS – BMRB May 4 Apr 27 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LABOUR 27% 27% LIB DEMS 29% 30% Opinium – Daily Express Opinium – D. Express May 5 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 35% 33% LABOUR 27% 28% LIB DEMS 26% 27%
Is this the best hung parliament bet?
Take the Hills 7/4 William Hillhave got a great hung parliament bet that looks really good. The firm is offering 7/4 against “David Cameron (or any other Tory politician) to be Prime Minister in Hung Parliament in 2010”. Given that even if the Tories are short they are still going to be a long way ahead of the party in second place and the chances must be that Cameron would lead a minority or coalition government. Mike Smithson
Yellows only down a point in YouGov London
YouGov London – E. Standard May 5 2005 CONSERVATIVES 36% 32% LABOUR 31% 39% LIB DEMS 27% 22% After last night’s daily poll for the Sun that had Clegg’s party shedding four points to its lowest position for weeks a new YouGov poll for London has them down just one point on last week’s poll – at 27% percent. The Tory and Labour shares are unchanged on the week. As I’ve argued the success or not of the Lib Dems…
My penultimate “tip of the day”
Guardian But could this change with the final polls? Almost every day for the past four weeks I’ve been producing a “tip of the day” for Guardian. Looking back some have been winners already – the TV audience for the first debate and which of the three would get the highest numbers. Some look like losers now but seemed a good idea at the time. One which I think will turn out to be profitable is the turnout being above…
How’s your region changed since 05/05/05?
YouGov regional aggregates with changes on last time YG Regional Aggregates Con Lab LD NAT North East 22 (+2) 44 (-9) 29 (+6) – North West 30 (+1) 34 (-11) 28 (+7) – Yorks & Humber 32 (+3) 30 (-14) 30 (+9) – East Midlands 34 (-3) 29 (-10) 29 (+11) – West Midlands 38 (+3) 30 (-9) 23 (+4) – East of England 44 (+1) 21 (-9) 27 (+5) – London 36 (+4) 31 (-8) 26 (+4) – South…
… and tonight’s ComRes
No change from ComRes, but 38% may change mind before voting ComRes: ITV News/Independent May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 29% 29% LIB DEMS 26% 26%  The press release from ITV News/The Independent says: “This poll gives the Conservatives 294 seats – 32 short of an overall majority – Labour 251 seats and Liberal Democrats 74. These voting intention figures are identical to figures from ComRes yesterday – the first time during the election campaign that figures…