Which of these will survive the first hurdle?

Which of these will survive the first hurdle?

Nomination tally: May 24 Total Betting
Ed Miliband 35 100%
David Miliband 19 100%
Ed Balls 4 90%
Andy Burnham 1 25%
John McDonnell 0 15%
Diane Abbott 0 25%

Betting on who will get the 33 nominations

The big political story, today’s Queen’s Speech of the new government, is only peripheral to the main political betting development – the opening up of a new market on which of the Labour hopefuls will actually make it to the ballot.

For as the members of the new house of commons gather for their first big occasion the five men and a woman who want to become Labour leader and possible next PM will be seeking to meet as many as possible of their party’s new MPs to see if they can find others who will back their bids.

Labour’s rules are quite tough: to get on the ballot a candidate needs to garner the support of one in eight of the MPs and that can be hugely challenging. Ambitious new Labour MPs, surely, will want to be seen to be supporting the winner.

The original plan was for this stage to have been completed this week – now that’s been extended until June 9th but there is not much time.

Above is the latest tally from the excellent Labour Uncut website together with the latest betting price on the chances of each getting on the ballot from Political Smarkets.

I think that Ed Balls has a bigger challenge than the betting suggests while Diane Abbott might find it easier. There will be a lot of support for having a woman on the ballot.

The one I cannot rate is Andy Burnham. The other one, John McDonnell, failed to get enough nominations last time against Gordon Brown and looks set to fail again.

UPDATE Twice a day, at 12.30pm and 5.30pm the official Labour site is publishing revised lists of actual nominations received. This will vary from other lists based on statements of support. My table will be based on the actual nominations and has been revised.

Going public in support of a candidate doesn't necessarily mean that they will be voting for them in the secret ballot. In the Tory contest in October 2005 David Davis, the early front runner, received fewer votes from Tory MPs than the total of those who had given him their public support.

Mike Smithson


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