YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 5 Apr 2 CONSERVATIVES 41% 39% LABOUR 31% 29% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 6.5% What do we make of the conflicting figures? So there we have it – the YouGov daily poll where the fieldwork finished this evening showing very different numbers from the Guardian/ICM poll earlier with the margin down to just four points. But like ICM the Labour share has increased with YouGov – so…
Opinium (Daily Express) Apr 5 Mar 29 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 29% 28% LIB DEMS 17% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 6.5% And the Tories move up one to 39 A second poll is just out, from new kid on the block Opinium, and this has the gap between the blues and the reds still at ten points although both move up one. I don’t have the Lib Dem figure yet. The firm is a new pollster…
ICM – Guardian Apr 4 Mar 31 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LABOUR 33% 29% LIB DEMS 21% 23% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 6% Could this mean that the red team will get most seats? There’s a new ICM poll for the Guardian just out where the fieldwork was carried out over the holiday weekend. The numbers, with changes on last week’s Guardian/ICM poll show a sharp increase in the Labour numbers to the point where it’s [possible that…
Should they be taking the focus off Brown? Posters are coming out at such a rate at the moment that it’s hard to keep up. This one from the Tories is trying to build on the perceived advantage from last week over the NI tax move. It’s theme is very much the same as the famous 1992 “Double Whammy” poster that was said to have been so successful. I’m not totally convinced of the visual portrayal. To me it’s good…
Does Marf’s cartoon hit the nail on the head? In all the discussion over Labour’s “Gene Hunt” poster everybody seems to have by-passed what the party’s core message ought to be – the need to counter the desire for something different that polling suggests is what getting on for two-thirds of voters want. For as has been said so often there are only two big ideas in election battles – either it is “time for change” or “don’t let the…
This is a new feature and will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets. There probably won’t be any articles on international politics over the next few weeks, but to ensure that it retains a toehold on PB even during the UK campaign, this slot will continue to feature international snippets. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster…
Opening polls 1997 CON LAB LD OTH LEAD Gallup March 21 27% 56% 11% 6% 29% MORI March 24 29% 50% 14% 7% 21% Harris Mar 24 28% 56% 10% 6% 28% ICM Mar 31 31% 45% 18% 6% 14% MORI Apr 1 28% 55% 11% 6% 27% Actual result May 1 1997 31.4 44.4 17.2 7 13 What was happening before the last change of government
Could the widening gap be giving him second thoughts? If indeed, as is being widely reported, Mr. Brown makes that short car journey from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace on Tuesday morning then it will be a situation almost without precedent. For never before in modern times has a PM with a working majority had to make a decision on an election date when his party had double digit deficits in the polls. John Major was in a worse polling…