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Month: March 2010

Will this Labour effort persuade Lib Dems to switch?

Will this Labour effort persuade Lib Dems to switch?

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Will rubbishing Clegg encourage tactical voting? Being identified on both the Labour and Tory central databases as a Lib Dem in a highly marginal seat I’m getting a lot of attention from both big parties – this latest, an expensive postcard, came in the mail this morning. Squeezing known LDs is clearly a key strategy but I just wonder whether this approach is right. To me it shows simplistic thinking which might look smart at Labour HQ but is not…

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Will Cameron get pulled up if he raises UNITE’s funding?

Will Cameron get pulled up if he raises UNITE’s funding?

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What if Bercow does what he did yesterday? With the BA strike getting closer then Cameron is surely going to raise it with Mr. Brown at PMQs today. But what happens if he touches on the Labour party’s close links with the union involved, UNITE. Could Speaker Bercow do what he sought to do yesterday and try to prevent this from being raised – his point being that questions should be about government and not party business. For in theory…

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Now a pollster from India enters the fray

Now a pollster from India enters the fray

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RNB – New Delhi Mar 10 2005 CONSERVATIVES 39% 33.2% LABOUR 31% 36.2% LIB DEMS 20% 22.7% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% — What do think of RNB’s numbers and unique analysis? Thanks to Gabble on a thread last night for spotting this – a new opinion poll from a leading research company from India which carried out a survey of Westminster voting intentions from a sample of 1,800 voters from March 4 to March 10th. The findings,…

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Tories still 5 ahead in the daily poll

Tories still 5 ahead in the daily poll

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YouGov Daily poll Mar 16 Mar 15 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3.5% And the LD bounce starts to fade So the only change tonight is a two point drop in the Lib Dem share – the Tory and Labour shares stay the same. Not a lot else to say really. Mike Smithson

Tonight’s commons seat spreads

Tonight’s commons seat spreads

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Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 330-335 225-230 55-58 Extrabet 330-335 228-233 57-60 Betfair 333-336 227-231 54-55.5 So all are in Tory majority territory With 325 seats being the technical threshold for a majority government tonight’s spread have the Tory number on all three markets being above the critical number – if not by very much. There hasn’t been much movement and clearly everything is being driven by the polls. Mike Smithson

Is this the killer question?

Is this the killer question?

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Will “change” be the big issue? Which of these two opposing thoughts do you think you would be most likely to agree with? CON voters LAB Voters LD Voters TOTAL Continuity in important, stick with Labour 2% 78% 25% 27% Time for change 98% 25% 74% 68% This is from the latest ICM poll – see data here. The PB survey We’ve already had a great response to the survey which is being carried out by Woodnorton Associates. If you…

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What if the price of a litre reaches GBP 1.20?

What if the price of a litre reaches GBP 1.20?

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WhatGas.com How will this go down in the marginals? The lead story in the Telegraph this morning is a warning by the AA that the price of a litre could “within day” hit the £1.20 a litre mark. This would make it more expensive than during the last peak in July 2008 which also coincided with Labour worst position in the opinion polls. This was looked at here in a post at the end of December when I posed the…

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But it’s Clegg that gets the boost in the daily poll

But it’s Clegg that gets the boost in the daily poll

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YouGov Daily poll Mar 15 Mar 12 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 32% 33% LIB DEMS 21% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3% Is this down to the conference coverage? So the third of tonight’s polls also has the Tory lead increasing – but this is down to Labour moving down a notch while the blue share stays the same. The big news is the Lib Dem bounce which, almost certainly, is down to the extensive coverage of…

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