ICM Sunday Telegraph Mar 11 Mar 4 CONSERVATIVES 38% 40% LABOUR 31% 31% LIB DEMS 21% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6% But it’s Clegg’s party not Labour that benefits The first of tonight’s polls, ICM for the Telegraph, provides a real boost for the Lib Dems who are gathered in Birmingham for their Spring conference. The 21% shares is only 1.7% down on what they achieved last time and must give them real hopes of hanging…
Wikipedia Could 1950 be a good precedent for Labour? As we count down to the 2010 election I’ve been trawling through the numbers from elections long past to see if there are any lessons for today. And the one that Labour might take heart from is 1950 when Clem Attlee’s then party had had a bad period in the polls with deficits of up to six points in the year beforehand. This was turned round in the final months so…
What should we make of his “mandate†comment? It’s unusual for the Lib Dems to get drawn into discussions about possible election results and what they’d do in a hung parliament. There are no easy answers and all scenarios tend to lead the discussion towards Labour and the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems. So Clegg’s comments yesterday on GMTV form a very interesting position. He said:If a party has got more support and has got a clearer mandate from…
Eve of election PB gathering – March 31st 6.30pm Thanks again to Fat Steve for organising this but we are having a pre-election informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. The time and date: 6.30 pm Wednesday March 31st. Following the points raised last time about the ventilation we will be in a different part of the pub. There’s no need to register but it would help if those that want…
Could it open up the UNITE-Labour link? Any big development that could affect large numbers of people in such a politically potent period as this has to be looked at in terms of how it could impact on voting in the election. At the very minimum the action could dominate the news media in the weeks before the vote. On top of that it could give the Tories the peg to open up what I think is a highly dangerous…
YouGov Angus Reid When you get two polls, apparently so far apart as YouGov and Angus Reid, it’s very hard to come up with an explanation except by digging deep into the the data. Fortunately we got all the Angus Reid data from the latest poll within hours of its publication. The weighting data is here while the details cross-tabs are here. The YouGov information should be available this morning but for comparison purposes I’ve used the weighting statement form…
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 11 Feb 19 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 18% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 7.5% So why the difference between the two online pollsters? Here’s the second poll of the night – the exclusive Angus Reid one for Politicalbetting – which is showing a radically different picture than YouGov a few minutes ago. On the face of it this is odd – for both operate on-line confining their polling…
YouGov poll (The Sun) Mar 11 Mar 10 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 34% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 4% Within the MOE – but will it affect the narrative ? So here it is – tonight’s daily poll which was not as falsely reported by a commenter earlier in the evening. This might give some comfort to Labour but I guess that all parties will want to see this sort of move supported…