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Month: February 2010

How a 9 point lead became a 7 percent one

How a 9 point lead became a 7 percent one

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Shouldn’t poll numbers be based on responses alone? It might come as a surprise to many that the headline figures from the three main past vote weighting phone pollsters, ICM/Populus/ComRes, are not based solely on how interviewees said they would vote. For before finalising their voting intention figures each of them makes an adjustment based on what they think the quite significant numbers of “refused”/”“won’t say” respondees would have done if they had stated an intention. This can cause the…

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CONFIRMED – Tory YouGov lead still 6pc

CONFIRMED – Tory YouGov lead still 6pc

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CON 39% (39) LAB 33% (33) LD 17%(17) Peter Kellner validates the figures – ConHome was wrong I’ve just managed to get in contact with Peter Kellner and he has confirmed the above figures to me – so ConHome got it wrong. The overnight YouGov daily poll showed no change in any of the numbers from Saturday night. The fact that there is no change from Sunday must come as major set-back for the Tories – and the Lib Dems….

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There must be a way of avoiding these uncertainties

There must be a way of avoiding these uncertainties

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My apologies if I was wrong All the previous header on the latest YouGov daily poll for the Sun has been deleted as a precautionary measure because I have no idea whether the poll numbers are correct or not. I had based the piece, written in the early hours, on a posting by Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome who, I assumed had the correct numbers. For the chairman of the company that owns that site and a big share-holder is Stephan…

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What a difference a day makes?

What a difference a day makes?

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CON 41% (39) LAB 29% (33) LD 19%(17) Is Labour paying the price for “BullyGate”? So there we have it, the latest YouGov daily poll as reported by Conservativehome with comparisons on the YouGov daily poll that was published on Saturday night for the following day’s Sunday Times. The turnaround is really quite extraordinary especially as the YouGov gap then was seen in the same area only a few hours ago in the February ICM poll for the Guardian. So…

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Will YouGov continue the gloom for Cameron?

Will YouGov continue the gloom for Cameron?

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Or will “BullyGate” boost the blues? In an hour or so we’ll get the YouGov daily poll for the Sun and the Tories must be hoping that it’ll show a reversal in the trend of recent weeks. The fieldwork started at 5pm last night and finished at 5pm this evening – so it’s pretty up to date – and is likely to have Labour benefiting much less from the after-glow of their Warwick gathering at the weekend. It will also…

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ICM has the lead down to 7 percent

ICM has the lead down to 7 percent

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CON 37 % (39) LAB 30% (30) LD 20% (20) But why is Labour not getting the benefit? (This piece has had to be hacked about because the paper’s website reported the wrong fieldwork dates. Sorry folks – blame the Guardian) The February poll by ICM for the Guardian is just out and shows a decline of three points in the Tory share with Labour and the Lib Dems holding firm.The big increase is the three point rise in “others”….

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Punters still fight shy of a hung parliament

Punters still fight shy of a hung parliament

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CON SPREAD RANGES 342 – 347 Sporting Index 340 – 345 ExtraBet 346 – 349.5 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 218 – 223 Sporting Index 220 – 225 ExtraBet 213 – 218 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 Sporting Index 54 – 57 ExtraBet 53.5 – 54 Betfair Line market This is the first PB Index for nine days and it shows only a four seat drop in the projected Tory majority since February 13. The…

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