Do the latest polls show it’s the end of the “others”? The dominating feature of the polls since last June’s Euro elections was that “others” – mainly GRN/BNP/UKIP – looked set to take a significant shares. These three parties together with PC/SNP in Wales and Scotland secured about 8% of GB vote in 2005. In some polls in the past few months this has touched 18% and a big question has been whether the Tories or Labour are being hit…
PoliticsHome Is this the product of being in power for 13 years? I don’t quite know what to make of this poll from PoliticsHome – the politics website and quasi polling organisation that has yet to join the British Polling Council. Inevitably when you’ve been at the helm for a fairly long time then there will have been a whole lot of disappointments on the policy front. But I just wonder what these numbers say about the motivation of party…
Amber Valley – 6.3% Barrow and Furness – 6.6% Basildon South & East Thurrock – 5.6% Batley and Spen – 6.7% Bedford – 4% Blackpool North and Cleveleys – 4.2% Bolton North East – 6% Bolton West – 5.9% Brigg and Goole – 3.9% Brighton Kemptown – 2.4% Brighton Pavilion – 6.6% Broxtowe – 2.2% Burton – 2.4% Bury North – 2.5% Calder Valley – 1.4% Carlisle – 6.7% Chatham and Aylesford – 4.1% Chester – 1.1% Cleethorpes – 3% Colne Valley – 1.3% Copeland – 6.6% Corby – 1.6% Crawley – 0.05% Derbyshire South – 2.7% Dewsbury – 4.4% Dorset South – 1.8% Dover –…
Guardian Might the Labour bias corrections have gone too far? The Guardian’s polling expert, Julian Glover, raises an interesting question this morning – could all the measures that have been made in recent years to correct the systemic pro-Labour polling bias have gone too far? And if that’s the case then could this offer a glimmer of hope for Brown’s party as it sees the Tories staying in the 40s looking on course for victory? For unlike any previous election…
Your predictions revealed Many thanks to everyone who took part in the PB 2010 Prediction Competition hosted by The Election Game, with a turnout 31% up on 2009. The full summary predictions and player-by-player detail are available here, but these are the headline numbers. UK General Election Con 348 Lab 215 LD 54 Con maj 46 Labour Leader at Xmas Ed Miliband 24% David Miliband 20% Harriet Harman 19% Alan Johnson 7% There are more potential Labour leadership candidates, plus…
Should we be waiting for the MORI January numbers? So in the past week we have had two telephone polls, Populus and ComRes, showing sharpish moves to the Tories while the two online polls have either reported no change (Angus Reid) or Labour moving up a notch and the Tories moving down (YouGov). Given that one, last night’s YouGov had the gap close to, as they say, “hung parliament territory” what is going on and could the election, after all,…
UPDATED 2030 CON 42 % (38) LAB 29 % (29) LD 19 %(19) The first of tonight’s polls is good for the Tories? A new ComnRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and will bring some cheer to Cameron Towers and might add to the gloom within Brown Central. There’s been a straight four point switch from “others” to the Tories with Labour and the Lib Dem remaining static. This is the second of two recent polls…
Is it worth 3/1 that it’ll exceed 70%? PaddyPower have now joined Ladbrokes in opening up a turnout market. Both are making 65 – 69.9% the favourite though the Irish bookmaker is being more generous if you think it will top 70%. It has 3/1 against this option compared with the Ladbrokes 9/4. I’m quite taken with the notion that we’ll see a significant increase on the 60% of 2005. This coming election looks set to produce only the second…