The main polling news on the big drop in Lib Dem support in the latest ICM survey is covered in the previous post. The Mail on Sunday, Sunday Telegraph, and Observer all strongly feature the leaked memo containing Blair’s thoughts on Brown. Fullest coverage is in the Mail, which received the leaked memo, written in the aftermath of the Labour conference last autumn. ‘There has been a lamentable confusion of tactics and strategy. Tactically, it was thought clever to define…
The firm’s 16% is the lowest since Clegg became leader The most significant news in a new ICM poll in the Sunday Express is that the Lib Dems have slumped to their lowest ratings from the firm since well before Nick Clegg became leader last December. The shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster nearly a fortnight ago are: CON 45% (+2): LAB 29% (+1): LD 16% (-3) This is a particular blow for the party because…
What role does John Hutton have yet to play? It was Michael Heseltine who famously remarked on his own failed bid to become Prime Minister that “He who wields the knife will never wear the crown”. This oft-repeated dictum has since played its part in preventing leadership coups, by tempering the ambition of those who would otherwise seek to overthrown their leader. This week saw fevered speculation, first Jack Straw posing for photos in the Sunday Papers, then Harriet Harman…
What is the impact of a nominee for POTUS having worn the uniform? “To err is human; to forgive, divine. Neither is the stated policy of the United States Marine Corps.” During the final stages of the primary season, when McCain was already the presumptive nominee but Clinton and Obama were still fighting their way to the Democratic nomination, I commented that the three candidates were all suited to different variants of the job. Rather glibly, I suggested that I…
The cross-party movements when the counter-factual was put We’ve now got the detailed data from this morning’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph which had these latest party shares: CON 47%: LAB 25%: LD 16% The main interest has been on how having David Miliband as leader would make almost no difference whatsoever and the tantalising information on what people say they would do if Tony could come back. This is clearly a fantasy world but the Blair as leader…
After our Glasgow East success what about the General Election? On the first Friday of every month I’m planning a new tracker survey of the PB community. What are our thoughts about the coming general election? What do we think the outcome is likely to be? Last week, of course, a similar prediction survey for the Glasgow East by-election had it 50:50 between Labour and the SNP with the latter being just a few votes ahead. This compared with the…
Will this mean that the Tories will win even more marginals? While the political world has been focussed on Labour’s by-election defeat in Glasgow and the possibility of a challenge to Brown’s leadership there’s another development this morning that has the potential to have an even bigger impact on the outcome of the next general election. For the body that oversees elections – the Electoral Commission – is, according to the main lead on Guardian On-line overnight, suggesting that the…