The cross-party movements when the counter-factual was put
We’ve now got the detailed data from this morning’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph which had these latest party shares: CON 47%: LAB 25%: LD 16%
The main interest has been on how having David Miliband as leader would make almost no difference whatsoever and the tantalising information on what people say they would do if Tony could come back.
This is clearly a fantasy world but the Blair as leader split is most interesting when you look at the details of where the extra Labour support comes from – as reproduced above.
The Tories lose a tenth of their current stated support to Labour while the Lib Dems lose one in seven voters. On the other hand Clegg’s party picks up 6% of the Labour vote.
I was furious overnight by the way we were misled about the contents of this poll by the advance billing on the paper’s blog. This has happened before with the paper. In future I’ll less trusting.