Why you cannot make comparisons with the run up to 1997 The above is reproduced from Anthony Wells’s excellent UK Polling Report site and shows the polls in the final month before the 1997 general election which Labour won with a margin of 13%. Just compare the above figures with the final shares of CON 31.4%: LAB 44.4%: LD 17.2% I refer back to this because time and time again you will read or hear commentators and politicians say that…
The April monthly survey by Populus for the Times is being published this evening and first indications are that it’s very bad for Gordon. The headline is already up on the Times web-site and reads “Economic confidence falters as Labour plunges”. UPDATE: The shares are now available and show CON 39% (+2): LAB 33%(-1 ): LD 17%(-2) This has not quite lived up to it billing and while a six point margin should put the Tories ahead on seats it…
After all the argument about the weightings there’s a new YouGov poll out this morning that puts Boris even further ahead. The shares are with changes on the last poll a week ago: JOHNSON 49% (+2): LIVINGSTONE 36% (-1): PADDICK 10% (nc) This is a huge margin and is in sharp contrast to the recent ICM poll which had, after second choices were taken into account, a Boris lead of just 2%. The gap between the pollsters is unprecedented though…
Peter Kellner admits “error” in the pollster’s weighting system? Last week while I was on holiday in France Adam Boulton’s blog carried a piece suggesting that YouGov’s London samples included too many older voters, who traditionally are more inclined to vote Conservative. He suggested that if the weightings had been in line with official population statistics then Boris would have had a lead of 6% – not the 10% found in the latest survey. So is there something in the…
“Il Cavaliere” down to 1.3 on Betfair – can Veltroni stop him? Double Carpet looks at Italian politics ahead of the election Italy goes to the polls next Sunday and Monday, and following hot on the heels of the Spanish election, it provides a good “compare and contrastâ€. Since 1983 there have been only three Prime Ministers in Spain (Gonzalez, Aznar, Zapatero), and indeed only three French Presidents, three German Chancellors, and four occupants each in Downing Street and the…
Was this behind the worst ICM ratings for three months? This morning’s ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph is good news for the Conservatives, good news for Labour but bad news for the Lib Dems. These are the shares with comparisons on the last ICM survey just a fortnight ago – CON 43%(+1): LAB 32%(+3): LD 18%(-3). The comparisons in the previous post were with the last ICM survey in the paper in early January. The pollster’s methodology is usually…
Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority? Con 43 (+6), Lab 32 (nc), Lib Dem 18 (-3) A poll by ICM in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, up six since the previous poll in January. The Telegraph notes that such a result could give a 40-seat majority for Cameron under FPTP, but under a putative AV-style system this would be reduced to 325 MPs. On the issue of economic competence, Brown/Darling and Cameron/Osborne…
..and two-thirds want an early referendum on independence? A YouGov poll carried out during the week north of the border has found a big boost for the SNP and suggests a possible problem for Labour in retaining seats in the country at the next general election. Like most Scottish polls it is in three parts:- Westminster General Election with changes on May 2005. SNP 31% (+13): Lab 35% (-5): Con: 17% (+1): Lib: 12% (-11): Oth: 4% Scottish Parliament constituency…