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Month: May 2007

Thread 2: Do the locals tell us much about a general election?

Thread 2: Do the locals tell us much about a general election?

Can we extrapolate in the way the Sunday Times does? Both the Sunday Times and the Sunday Telegraph carry projections this morning about what Thursday’s results would mean in general election terms. In the Telegraph Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde suggests that the CON-LAB-LD split was 40%-27%-26% which he suggests would give the Tories an overall majority of 20 seats. The Sunday Times projection of a 54 overall seat for the Tories is based on work by Professors Colin Rallings…

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Invitation to PBers to the BPC mid-term conference

Invitation to PBers to the BPC mid-term conference

15th June 2007 at Central Hall Westminster. Storey’s Gate SW1H 9NH Cost: Please send a cheque for £30 payable to British Polling Council sent to ICM Research, Berkshire House, 168-173, High Holborn, London WC1V 7AA, together with your name, address and any organisation that you represent. By 1st June. For more information on the British polling Council please visit the BPC website – www.britishpollingcouncil.org This looks like an interesting day for a modest price and I am delighted that the…

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Is it wise for Darling to tell lies about the result?

Is it wise for Darling to tell lies about the result?

Why spin something that’s so easy to check? I’ve just heard cabinet minister Alistair Darling talking about the Scottish results on Radio 4’s Today Programme and at least six times he claimed that Labour and the SNP ended up with the same number of votes. If that’s the line that the spinners are taking then it’s a lie and, I would suggest very dangerous. Fact: The SNP got 664,227 (32.9%) of the votes in the constituency section on Thursday and…

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Is evens on Ming surviving a good value bet?

Is evens on Ming surviving a good value bet?

Will he still be leader at the General Election? In the immediate aftermath of the election results the Lib Dem leader, Ming Campbell, was forced onto the back foot with questions in TV interviews about his leadership style. In response he is quoted as saying: “Let me make it absolutely clear. I will be leading this party through this parliament, into the next election and into the parliament beyond.” William Hill have announced that they are offering evens that he…

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What does Scotland’s loss do for Gordon?

What does Scotland’s loss do for Gordon?

Has the Chancellor what it takes to turn the party round? So Scotland is now lost and the question must be asked about what this means to the Scotsman who looks set, within the next few weeks, to take over at Number 10? Even though the final result is nothing like as bad as might have been feared a week or so the news within the last few minutes that the SNP is top party must cast a shadow over…

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How should Tony view his last elections?

How should Tony view his last elections?

With Scotland not being quite the disaster that had been predicted how should the great campaigner, Tony Blair, view his final election in charge? As I have often observed – “nobody ever got rich betting against Tony Blair” and certainly that might hold good with Scotland. While the Tories have moved forward it is not just Labour that has suffered losses. Carry on the election discussion here. Mike Smithson

Why did we get the Lib Dems wrong?

Why did we get the Lib Dems wrong?

Was Ming’s party the big loser in yesterday’s elections? The above instant “poll” was taken on Tuesday amongst visitors to the site and shows how people were perceiving the possibilities for Britain’s third party earlier in the week. On the face of its things were looking up for Ming and his team. In the three previous national opinion polls, albeit on general election voting intention, the Lib Dems had shown significant improvements. Yet with about half the results from the…

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So is Labour winning the expectation war?

So is Labour winning the expectation war?

The election thread – part 3 With the BBC national vote share projection showing CON 41%: LAB 27%: LD 26% there’s little doubt that the party that has done better than expectation is Labour. The talk of an electoral “meltdown” has been somewhat premature. Yet there is still a long way to go before we see the full results from yesterday’s and today should be very exciting. The stories about electronic counting and the number of ballot papers declared void…

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