New poll shows the leading candidates are neck and neck

Two and a half months ago, just as my book The Political Punter – How to make money betting on politics was being finalised, my publishers suggested that I should add a betting guide to the French Presidential election.

This put me into a mild panic because the publication date had then been fixed for just five days before the first round of voting and I was being asked to set out in early February something that could be proved by events to be wrong within five days of the book arriving in the shops.

This is what I wrote ten weeks ago and is in the book: “….Royal could even end up ahead of Sarkozy on the first ballot which could give her campaign a boost for the second round. Those wanting to back her will probably get the best prices before the first vote; those going for Nicolas Sarkozy would be advised to wait until afterwards.”

Extraordinarily, in spite of all that has happened since early February, that advice still looks very good this morning with the latest Betfair prices putting Royal at 3/1 and Sarkozy at 0.52/1.

For when the results are known the prices of the two candidates in the run-off should start to converge and today’s Royal odds will look like a real bargain. Then should be the moment to back Sarkozy as his odds start are likely to drift – so smart punters could make profits which ever way the second round goes on May 6th

This is reinforced this morning by a new poll that because of French electoral law has not been published in the country but is in the Sunday Times in the UK. This puts Sarkozy on 27%, Royal on 26%, Ségolène Royal on 26%, Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front on 17%, and François Bayrou, the centrist contender, at 16%.

For the run-off on May 6th the pollster, CSA, is predicting a 50%-50% split. It is true that this firm has tended to show lower Sarkozy shares than the other firms.

The chart shows the changing Betfair prices on Royal and Sarkozy since January.

Mike Smithson