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Month: February 2006

Was Blair’s leaflet attack an own goal?

Was Blair’s leaflet attack an own goal?

Did the Cameron “flip-flop” attack bring Iraq into the campaign? Just 19 hours before polls opened in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election Tony Blair produced a leaflet at Prime Minister’s Questions to reinforce his attacks on David Cameron for flip-flopping. It had been delivered to the seat’s most famous resident, Gordon Brown, and Blair quoted comments from it on the Tory policy on Iraq. This completely undermined David Cameron and there was general agreement that the Prime Minister’s performance…

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What does Dunfermline do for Gordon?

What does Dunfermline do for Gordon?

Was the Chancellor the big loser? The next Labour leader betting markets could be interesting over the next few days as politicians and punters digest the sensational by-election loss to the Lib Dems of the seat where Gordon Brown lives. Over the past three weeks there has been a sharp move back to Gordon in the betting on who will replace Tony Blair – his price tightening from 0.53/1 to 0.42/1. This has been driven by the new view at…

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Question Time – How the Huhne-Campbell prices changed

Question Time – How the Huhne-Campbell prices changed

The above chart shows how punters on the Betfair market changed their view of the two front runners while and immediately after the Lib Dem Question Time debate was taking place. The numbers are the implied probability of success based on the betting prices. What is starting is how the Huhne price tightened sharply in the minutes after the programme. Mike Smithson

How much can we rely on YouGov?

How much can we rely on YouGov?

Is Chris Huhne right to start dancing in the streets? After an extraordinary day on the Lib Dem leadership markets and the busiest forty-eight hours since PB.C started the big question is how much can we rely on YouGov – the internet pollster? After the firm’s final poll before the December announcement on David Cameron’s election I raised my doubts about the YouGov approach. What worried me was that the same group of people, in that case Tory members, was…

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Huhne set to win – YouGov

Huhne set to win – YouGov

Second YouGov poll on Lib Dem members now released I have just received this from Peter Kellner – boss of YouGov. The attached data has just been released, from our latest poll of Lib Dem members. Huhne: 38%: Campbell 34%: Hughes 27% The run-off figures, eliminating Hughes are:Huhne 52%: Campbell 48%. According to the accompanying spreadsheet the survey took place from February 7-9 and the client was John Stevens. The number of members in the sample was 401. This is…

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By-election betting to continue until the declaration

By-election betting to continue until the declaration

Labour 0.07/1 to hold the seat in Gordon’s back yard If there is going to be a shock in today’s by-election in Dunfermline and West Fife then the first indications should be seen on the betting exchange markets. For if there is just a sniff that something might be happening around the campaign HQs of the main parties then information will seep out and punters will try to cash in. All unmatched betting exchange bets are cancelled at 7am so…

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My informant sticks by his YouGov information

My informant sticks by his YouGov information

The informant behind my article on the private YouGov survey on the Lib Dem leadership has come back to me. He says he has rechecked his source (who he trusts absolutely) and is convinced that the YouGov figures are genuine. It will be noted that the comment in Peter Kellner’s email was very specific – “that all the figures that you, and Guido Fawkes, attributed yesterday to our recent poll of Lib Dem members are wrong”. There seem to be…

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