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Month: October 2005

Cocaine poll boost send punters rushing to Cameron

Cocaine poll boost send punters rushing to Cameron

Tories divide 69:29 saying hard drugs should not be a barrier The absence of bad stories in the Sunday papers and a new opinion poll have led to heavy betting on David Cameron this morning. On the market sensitive Betfair exchange his price has tightened from 0.85/1 to 0.72/1 while the betting recovery on David Davis has been reversed. For the last few days there has been a strong view that today’s papers, particularly the Mail on Sunday, could be…

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Tory hopefuls survive the Sundays’ test

Tory hopefuls survive the Sundays’ test

But the News of the World has a splash about George Osborne After the mounting speculation that at least one of the Sunday papers was trying to “find dirt” on Tory contender, David Cameron, the Shadow Education Secretary and betting favourite seems to have escaped unscathed this morning. There is a big story, however, in the News of the World showing a picture of Cameron’s close colleague and campaign chief, George Osborne, with his arms round a woman described as…

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The PB.C Tory Leadership Predictor Award – Round 1

The PB.C Tory Leadership Predictor Award – Round 1

…… How many votes will each get in Tuesday’s ballot? We’ve argued about it for six months and on Tuesday the first ballots will be cast in the 2005 Tory leadership election. How is this going to go? Will front-runner David Cameron be hurt by not answering the drug questions? Will former front-runner David Davis cruise into the next round as easily as his number of declared supporters suggest – or will some change their minds in the secrecy of…

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The Leadership battle – the first six months

The Leadership battle – the first six months

Will the Sundays kill off the Cameron challenge? As our chart shows the first six months of the battle to replace Michael Howard as Tory leader has seen huge swings between the front-runners. What the graph illustrates is the implied probability of success based on the best betting prices available. Even though this is the final weekend of the first phase this contest is still very difficult to call and much could depend on what is in tomorrow’s papers. Will…

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William Hill reckon Fox will be first to drop out

William Hill reckon Fox will be first to drop out

Its Fox vs Clark In First Leadership Cull Bookmakers William Hill make Liam Fox their 5/6 odds-on favourite to be the first Tory leadership candidate to be balloted out of the running, closely followed by Ken Clarke who is priced at Even money. The other prices for the early departure are David Cameron 11/1 and David Davis 25/1 We think Hills have priced this wrong because the big move today on the betting exchanges has been an easing of the…

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Who’ll benefit from the drugs question?

Who’ll benefit from the drugs question?

Is the main impact just to raise Cameron’s profile? Following David Cameron’s appearance on Question Time last night and reports that the Mail Group is “seeking to dig up the dirt” on him the big question before the crucial first ballot is who all this is helping and who is being hurt? Watching the Shadow Education Secretary’s response on Question Time last night and the reaction of the audience I could not help but think that the main impact of…

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FOUR men: TWO to the final – TWO to be dropped

FOUR men: TWO to the final – TWO to be dropped

How the betting markets are rating the candidates Our latest chart showing the implied probability of victory based on the best betting prices shows the fortunes of the four still in the race over the past seven days. The big loser at the moment is the former Chancellor and contender in 1997 and 2001, Ken Clarke. He’s seen further slippage today and might not even make the second MPs ballot next Thursday. A further blow was the Cameron campaign announcing…

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September prediction competition finally resolved

September prediction competition finally resolved

Merkel’s election means we can now announce the results On the August Bank Holiday, we put up a prediction competition based on September’s political events around the world. We had a close result, and the top three contestants were: Haz S: 56 points Chris: 54 points Ben: 51 points The winner Haz S, also known as Harry Spencer, lives in North Norfolk and is a sixth-form student who aims to become a lawyer. Outside politics he enjoys tennis, music, computer…

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