- Will the Sundays kill off the Cameron challenge?
As our chart shows the first six months of the battle to replace Michael Howard as Tory leader has seen huge swings between the front-runners. What the graph illustrates is the implied probability of success based on the best betting prices available. Even though this is the final weekend of the first phase this contest is still very difficult to call and much could depend on what is in tomorrow’s papers.
What a test for the media skills of all of the contenders tomorrow will be. So far as the punters who are risking hard cash on the outcome are concerned the drugs affair does not seem to have hurt Cameron. He remains a heavy odds-on favourite.
MY PERSONAL BETTING: I’m not totally convinced by the markets and have been cutting back my exposure on Cameron ahead of tomorrow. I’ve also put a little bit on Fox at 9/1 and 10/1 because his price will surely tighten if after Tuesday’s vote he is still in the race.