September prediction competition finally resolved

September prediction competition finally resolved

Merkel’s election means we can now announce the results

On the August Bank Holiday, we put up a prediction competition based on September’s political events around the world. We had a close result, and the top three contestants were:

1. Haz S: 56 points
2. Chris: 54 points
3. Ben: 51 points

The winner Haz S, also known as Harry Spencer, lives in North Norfolk and is a sixth-form student who aims to become a lawyer. Outside politics he enjoys tennis, music, computer games and reading. Though he assures us he is a teenager like any other, his prediction skills are pretty enviable. Many congratulations to him.

Our contestants were most accurate in predicting the turnout in Livingston, with 6 entrants getting full marks on that. By contrast, not a single person predicted that all eight of the parties in the last New Zealand parliament would be re-elected. The winner and runner-up of the competition were the only entrants to score any points on that one, both predicting 7 parties would be represented.These were the questions, and the correct answers:

UK

1: What percentage of votes cast at the Conservative National Convention will be for the constitutional amendment giving MPs the final say in electing a leader?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 1% you are out

2: Which party will win the Livingston by-election?
5 points

3: What will be the percentage turnout in the Livingston by-election?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 1% you are out

4: What will be Labour’s winning margin in Livingston as a percentage of votes cast? (if Labour lose, this will be a negative number)
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.5% you are out

Germany

5: Which parties will hold ministerial office in the new government?
Correct answer: CDU–CSU, SPD
4 points for each correct party; -4 for each incorrect party; CDU–CSU treated as a single party

6: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will the FDP receive?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.25% you are out

7: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will Die Linke–PDS receive?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.25% you are out

New Zealand

8: How many parties (no need to name them) will win seats in parliament?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 5 points for each 1 you are out

9: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will the National party receive?