Will the Budget change the market sentiment about Labour?

The terror bill and the confident start to the Tory election campaign has caused punters on the spread markets to move away slightly from Labour resulting in a drop of about eight seats. Now Gordon Brown’s pre-election budget is coming up and we expect that the market might turn.

Already the Chancellor has had a £2.1bn boost from the way expenditure on roads is calculated which should free up more money for pre-election spending. The latest spread prices are showing changes since the end of January before the terror bill was published:-

IG Index spreads are LAB 351-357 (-8): CON 198-204 (+14): LD 68-72 (-3).

Spreadfair has LAB 352-353 (-6): CON 200.3-202.9 (+12.9): LD 68.5-70 (-3.5)

Meanwhile IG Index has created a novel new range of markets on the budget itself. These are the prices:-
Length of Speech 57 – 59 minutes
Pint of Beer up 0.5 – 1.5p
Bottle of Spirits up 1 – 2p
Bottle of Wine up 2 – 3p
Litre of Unleaded Petrol up 0 – 1p
Packet of 20 Cigarettes up 8 – 10p

Number of mentions of the word in the budget speech:
Tax 50 – 53
Million(s) 19 – 22
Billions(s) 30 – 33
Education 15 – 18
Health 10 -12
Growth 20 – 23
Prudent/Prudence 2.25 – 2.75

Calls for Order: by the Deputy Speaker 0.1 – 0.6

Number of sips of water 0.6 – 0.9

General Election odds round-up.

© Mike Smithson 2005