Is Preston just a special case or is there a national problem?
If you want to vote in the coming General Election you have until 5pm today to register to be certain of being on the electoral roll for a May 5th poll.
There’s been a big effort to get people to get on the list but in one town, at least, thousands of people might have debarred themselves because their forms have not been received. Last week Preston warned that the electoral roll has fallen by 17.5% meaning that 14,000 people will, unless they acted in the past seven days, be debarred from taking part.
This is a huge drop which, if it has been replicated even on a smaller scale elsewhere, could have a big impact on the outcome.
There’s been no explanation for the figure and what’s happened in one place might well have gone on in other towns and cities.
Last time Mark Hendrick won the seat for Labour with a 34% majority so even a big decline in voter numbers is not going to have an impact on the outcome. But in other more marginal seats a reduction in voter numbers might be critical.
BETTING UPDATE: If there has been a general effort to tighten up the electoral roll then the turnout could be much higher. The current turnout prices are 60% + evens and with Betfair 65% + 3.1/1. The IG Index turnout spread is currently 58-60%.
The Commons seat spread markets have seen further movement away from Labour. The latest spreads are:-
IG Index spreads are LAB 351-357: CON 198-204: LD 68-72.
Spreadfair has LAB 352-353: CON 200.3-202.9: LD 68.5-70
Â© Mike Smithson 2005