We want your views With political betting activity being quiet at the moment we thought that this would be a good time to work on the long-promised re-design of the site. Are there things you would like to see? How can we make the site better? In hand we have plans to do more to explain some of the modern betting systems to novice gamblers. We want a better forum structure and we want your views. Someone described this recently…
Has the sentiment moved a bit to Michael Howard? For the first time for weeks there’s been some movement on the spread markets. After staying almost static for nearly a month IG have marked the Tories up 2 seats and the Lib Dems down 2. The latest prices are:- LAB 340-348 (n/c): CON 202-210 (+2): LIBD 68-72 (-2) Both these price changes were anticipated by Politicalbetting. After strongly saying BUY LD from 58 seats upwards in June we advised site…
With the recent focus on the White House race and the UK opinion polls all over the place hardly anybody is putting money on any of the General Election markets. With less than six months to go before the likely date, 05/05/05, the amounts matched on the Betfair elections markets have remained almost static since the party conference season and the Hartlepool by-election. On the spread markets it appears to be the same. News like dramatic polls shifts this week…
Baxter calculation = Labour 162 majority Tony Blair is heading for a majority of 162 if the party vote shares in latest MORI poll were applied on a uniform national swing basis. The shares with seat projects from Martin Baxter calculator are:- LAB 39% 404 seats CON 29% 148 seats LD 22% 65 seats The surveying took place in the final week in October and the results have only just become available. They represent a huge swing to Labour following…
bbc After the great success of the US site, Pollingreport, during the Presidential election the polling commentator, blogger and regular contributor to Politicalbetting, Anthony Wells, has launched his own version for the UK. This will provide a one-stop table and other data of all the latest polling information and should be invaluable in the run-up to the General Election. We’ve included it as a fixed link on the list on the right hand side of the page. This promises to…
Is a Tory BUY now good bet? Today’s Populus Poll in the Times shows a big recovery for the Tories after a tricky autumn. The figures are: LAB 34 (-1): CON 33 (+5): LD 22 (-3): UKIP 2 (-2) This has been helped by the expcted decline in UKIP following the leadership rifts and Robert Kilroy-Silk’s decision to detach himself from his MEP colleagues in Brussels. The poll itself and the big coverage being given to it by the Times…
Today’s report by the Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, John Curtice, showing how Labour could lose its overall majority even though the Tories are at a standstill has had zero impact on the betting markets. No spread prices have been available for a few days from SportingIndex market but at IG the spreads ended the day at the same level as they started:- LAB 340-348: CON 200-208: LD 70-74 The best price on Labour getting most seats remains at…
Would handicap betting make the General Election more interesting? A common practice whenever an event seems a foregone conclusion is to introduce a “handicap” element to make the betting on the second or third favourite an attractive proposition. With most of the polls showing Labour 4-5% ahead it’s very hard to see what Michael Howard will be able to take out of the General Election for the Tories. Even allowing for the pollsters’ proven tendency to always over-state the Labour…