With the recent focus on the White House race and the UK opinion polls all over the place hardly anybody is putting money on any of the General Election markets.
With less than six months to go before the likely date, 05/05/05, the amounts matched on the Betfair elections markets have remained almost static since the party conference season and the Hartlepool by-election. On the spread markets it appears to be the same. News like dramatic polls shifts this week or the Curtice report is simply being ignored.
Punters are, very wisely, keeping their wallets tightly in their pockets.
We can get a sense of activity by the “click throughs” on the site and these for UK markets have declined dramatically.
The main General Election market where the Labour best is 1/6 offers no bargain although there’s just a trickle of punters taking advantage of what they see as “free money”. The downside risk of spreadbetting is so great that punters are being amazingly cautious about going in one way or the other. The current levels of LAB 340-348: CON 200 – 208: LD 70-74 offer no obvious value.
It all comes down to there being no reason why you should bet now rather than later.
It will change but how are we going to read the differing polls? It looks like a nightmare.