Today’s report by the Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, John Curtice, showing how Labour could lose its overall majority even though the Tories are at a standstill has had zero impact on the betting markets.
No spread prices have been available for a few days from SportingIndex market but at IG the spreads ended the day at the same level as they started:- LAB 340-348: CON 200-208: LD 70-74
The best price on Labour getting most seats remains at 1/6.
In a feature by Andrew Grice in today’s Independent a list seats at risk is published on the asumption that there is an 8.5% swing from the Labour to the Lib Dems and the Tories standing still. This is the heart of the report:-
Professor Curtice calculated that an 8.5 per cent national swing from Labour to Mr Kennedy’s party and an end to previous tactical voting could result in a hung parliament even if the Tories stand still. The Tories would gain 71 seats from Labour without winning a higher share of the vote, while losing 13 to the Liberal Democrats. Labour would lose 71 constituencies to the Tories, 12 to the Liberal Democrats and one each to the Scottish and Welsh nationalists. The Liberal Democrats would not reap huge rewards because of Britain’s electoral system. Instead, the Tories would overtake Labour in Labour-held marginals, while Mr Kennedy’s party gained 12 seats from Labour and 13 seats from the Tories, including those held by the shadow ministers David Davis, Oliver Letwin, Theresa May and Tim Collins.
According to Curtice these are the seats at risk.
Conservative to Liberal Democrat
Taunton; Orpington; Surrey South West; Dorset West; Haltemprice and Howden; Isle of Wight; Eastbourne; Wells; Westmorland and Lonsdale; Totnes; Wiltshire North; Maidenhead; Dorset North
Labour to Conservative
Dorset South; Braintree; Monmouth; Lancaster and Wyre; Kettering; Northampton South; Welwyn Hatfield; Shipley; Clwyd West; Bexleyheath and Crayford; Milton Keynes North East; Hornchurch; Selby; Edinburgh Pentlands; Hammersmith and Fulham; Thanet South; Forest of Dean; Wellingborough; Ilford North; Rugby and Kenilworth; Gillingham; Harwich; Enfield North; Calder Valley; Ayr; Redditch; Peterborough; Shrewsbury and Atcham; Dartford; Scarborough and Whitby; Hove; Preseli Pembrokeshire; Gloucester; Putney; Hemel Hempstead; Ribble South; Finchley and Golders Green; Wolverhampton South West; The Wrekin; Croydon Central; Elmet; Wimbledon; Stroud; Keighley; Sittingbourne and Sheppey; High Peak; Stourbridge; Brigg and Goole; Medway; Wirral West; St Albans; Vale of Glamorgan; Burton; Hastings and Rye; Bradford West; Chatham and Aylesford; Warwick and Leamington; Gravesham; Great Yarmouth; Wansdyke; Stafford; Tamworth; Dover; Watford; Broxtowe; Birmingham Edgbaston; Brighton Kemptown; Gedling; Harrow West; Enfield Southgate; Portsmouth North
Labour to Lib Dem
Falmouth and Cambourne; Colne Valley; Leeds North West; Reading East; Cardiff Central; Oldham East and Saddleworth; Bristol West; Birmingham Yardley; Aberdeen South; Rochdale; Edinburgh South; Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber
Labour to Plaid Cymru
Labour to SNP
The report is being discussed in detail on the previous thread.
If Curtice is correct then the Labour sell price of 340 and the Tory Buy price of 208 would both seem to offer excellent value.
The best bet on a hung parliament remains that on when Tony Blair will leave Downing Street. You can now get 7/2 on anytime between now and December 31 2005. If Blair did not get a majority how long would he survive?