Plaid Cymru prove to be the big cheese in Caerphilly
Last week I tipped Plaid Cymru to win this by-election because the polls were relatively close and that there was more centre-left votes to squeeze than there were on the right for Reform to squeeze.
There are a few reasons why I still think Labour have a chance of winning the next general election is because of that, people will coalesce around who is best placed to defeat Reform.
As I am still on holiday here’s some first thoughts on this election
- It would be the height of churlishness to say this result is a disappointment for Reform at they moved from pretty 0% to 36% but the constituency poll flattered them, perhaps the most accurate polling might turn out to be ones where Reform are doing worst.
- Turnout increasing at a by-election from the previous general elections feels unprecedented.
- Reform’s hope is that they pick up previously apathetic non-voters, if this category of voters are more determined to stop Reform then that bodes ill for them.
- The big two polled over 63% at the last Senedd election, last night they polled 13%, further proof that the century long duopoly is over.
- This is the first time in fourteenth attempts Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle has won Caerphilly in Westminster and Senedd elections, this sends out a message to everybody you should never give up your dreams and don’t give up after the thirteenth failure.
- Could this be Welsh independence’s Hamilton by-election?
- This is one by-election, don’t read too much into it.
- If we could have some interesting Westminster by-elections that would be nice.
TSE