I can understand why 2026 is the favourite in this market from William Hill. If as expected Labour are utterly banjaxed in next year’s local and devolved elections there will a clamour for changes to be made by Starmer and sacrificing your Chancellor might be an option.

If Rachel Reeves handles the upcoming budget badly then I can see why people would want to pile on the 2026 exit date as well.

I think the value might be in 2028 which would allow the government to perform a reset and have a new team ready for the 2029 general election.

TSE