Following his defection last week the Danny Kruger effect has led to Ladbrokes putting up a market on which serving Tory MP will next defect to Reform, the screen shot above doesn’t show all the potential contenders, for example you could get 100/1 on Kemi Badenoch being the next Tory MP to defect.

I would avoid this market as it is the epitome of an insiders’ market, I am interested in the market on a Labour MP defecting to Reform.

I can think of a handful of contenders but I suspect Labour defections will be on their left flank but in the last parliament we had two defections which left me utterly speechless, Lisa Cameron from the SNP to the Tories and Natalie Elphicke from the Tories to Labour. The odds and timeframe makes the second bet unattractive for me.

TSE