Britain has a problem.

Well, obviously, Britain has loads of problems.

But there’s one that really bugs me, and that is the question of how we look after granny when she can no longer look after herself.

The facts are stark. In 2021, there were around 11 million people aged 65+ in the UK. By 2040, that’ll hit nearly 15 million. That’s an army of silver-haired citizens, and a growing share will need residential care. The trouble? Care homes are expensive, and someone has to foot the bill. Councils already spend over £20 billion a year on adult social care. And the council’s only stepping in after grandma’s carefully squirrelled savings have disappeared faster than a cheap bottle of sherry at Christmas.

You might think the solution is simply “hire more British carers.” But here’s the rub: caring is hard, messy, and often thankless. Pay hovers around £11–12 an hour, which is less than stacking shelves at Aldi—without the bonus of a free air-conditioned workplace and occasional rogue KitKat. Unsurprisingly, care homes lean heavily on immigrant labour. In fact, one in five care workers is foreign-born, and since 2020 the Home Office has quietly made visa routes easier because, frankly, who else is applying?

But suppose we slam the immigration door and insist British workers fill the gap. Lovely idea—until the numbers land. If we double the wages needed to tempt people into care work, the costs explode.

Not only does this mean that councils will pay more out now, but that -because savings will be run through more quickly- a greater proportion of oldies are going to end being paid for out of the council’s (limited) coffers.

This means councils will raise taxes, perhaps sharply. Council tax bills (already averaging £2,065 a year for Band D) will jump. Families will find even less of granny’s inheritance trickling down. And care homes? Historically, they’ve never been particularly profitable anyway—hence the constant churn of operators collapsing under debt.

So we’re left with a triangle of doom:

• Want lower immigration? Pay carers more.
• Pay carers more? Council tax shoots up.
• Keep council tax low? Rely on immigrant labour.

How do we square this circle? Not with magical thinking, but with tax reform. Right now, if you’re on benefits, taking a low-paid job can mean facing an effective marginal tax rate of 70%+ once Universal Credit tapers away. Why sweat through 12-hour shifts of lifting, cleaning, and comforting, only to keep pennies in the pound? Until work always pays—until the system lets people genuinely keep more of what they earn— then we’ll keep importing low skilled labour.

It’s simple. If you want fewer immigrants in care homes and don’t want to sell granny’s bungalow to cover the fees, then fix the tax and benefits system. Otherwise, we’ll keep going round in circles—and we’ll all keep footing the bill.

Robert