Yesterday’s news about a potential pact between the Tories and Reform helped crystalise a thought I’ve had about why backing Reform to win the most seats at the next general election might not be profitable even if you are confident that Nigel Farage is going to be the Prime Minister after the next election. I’ll explain the reasons why this is plausible

I) A pact between Reform and the Tories.

This might allow Labour to win the most seats but locked out by the Tories and Reform who have a majority in the House of Commons

II) A takeover of the Conservative party.

Discussions about a pact might lead to a full blown takeover so Reform might not stand any candidates at the election under this scenario

III) Farage is a bolter.

Reform is the fifth party Nigel Farage has been a member of, in fact in the last seven years he’s been in three different parties, it is possible he forms a new party before the next election.

All of the above makes me hesistant to bet considerable amounts on Reform winning the most seats.

TSE