Today is the tenth anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum and if we look at how things are now compared to September 2014 not much has changed. Labour’s red rose is the dominant flower of Scotland, the SNP have single digit number of MPs, whilst support for independence generally hovering around the mid to high 40s (when don’t knows are removed) but all of that belies what has happened in those ten years.

The SNP tsunami of 2015, Brexit, Covid-19, the spectacular fall out between Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond which has ended up with Salmond forming a rival party, and the legal problems both have experienced, and of course the comedy of the motorhome.

Like George Osborne I think the only route for a second independence referendum in the next twenty years is if the SNP go in to a governing coalition with a party at Westminster which leads to the role of the Prime Minister in any future referendum.

David Cameron had to marshal the forces of Unionism but had the sense not to wade in realising it is a matter that should be left to Scots such as Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, had it had been Boris Johnson as PM then his ego would have insisted he repeatedly go up to to Scotland and debate Alex Salmond which would have been sub-optimal for No, the occupant of Number 10 at the time of any future independence referendum will be critical. My view is that until the Nationalists have credible answers on the economy such as the currency an independent Scotland will use and who will be the lender of last resort then independence will flounder which is what happened in 2014. People want certainty when it comes to the pound in their online banking account.

TSE