1) The collapse of the SNP. They lost half a million votes (42% of their 2019 total) and with it 39 seats. Its remaining 9 seats are not remotely safe – 7 of them are in the top 10 most marginal seats in Scotland.

2) The collapse of the Tories. They lost nearly 400k votes – more than half their 2019 total. That only lost them one seat vs 2019, but they are just not as powerful as they were. 15 lost deposits (from zero last time out), and from being 2nd in 18 seats last time that is reduced to 5.

3) The sensational return of Labour. The only party to increase their vote from last time (by 66%!!!), they exploded from a single seat in 2019 to 37 in 2024, picking up seats like East Renfrewshire from 3rd. Labour didn’t need the Scottish seats to secure a majority, but winning the most votes in Scotland will be a huge bonus to the Starmer government.

4) The LibDems overperformed, picking up 10.5% of seats from 9.7% of the vote. A slight increase in percentage share, which on a lower national turnout meant fewer votes won (234k vs 263k in 2019). Seats won up from 4 to 6 (though on the new boundaries we notionally only started the night holding 2 seats). Our targeting was first rate, with 28 lost deposits (not mine!) to go alongside taking back seats previously held by Jo Swinson and Charles Kennedy

5) Alba are nowhere. Less than 12k votes between their 19 candidates, with none of their candidates who were sitting MPs getting anywhere near retaining their deposit.

For the SNP, their performance was utterly catastrophic. Leadership schisms diverted them away from their claimed mandate for Indyref2, but they did make the GE a pseudo-referendum, with independence on “page 1, line 1” of their manifesto. The mass rejection of the SNP is – on their own terms – a mass rejection of independence.

Worse is the financial impact on the party. Starved of donors, mired in finance scandals, the party now has its funding from the hated Westminster absolutely gutted. Its collapse in both MPs and seats means losing nearly a cool £1m in short money cash, as well as the 10% of salary it tithed from the 39 MPs it no longer has.

With Alba also having a disastrous night, I do look at the road towards the 2026 Holyrood election and wonder if the SNP’s long reign is coming to an end. Their only solace is that turnout in Scotland was down by 8.5%. If they believe that much of this was their vote staying at home, and that they can enthuse them again, perhaps they can pull off that record 5th election win. Or perhaps not…

Rochdale Pioneers