With the Westminster General Election upcoming next month [July], We are all wondering which seats will be close and which constituencies are foregone conclusions.

Within Part 1, I will analyse and predict the final standings for the following areas :

Belfast South, Belfast West, East Derry / Londonderry, Foyle, Mid Ulster, Newry & Armagh, North Antrim, Upper Bann & West Tyrone.

Belfast South : Kate Nicholl [Alliance] is one of the most interesting candidates in this election. The former Lord Mayor is highly popular and well liked within the country. Alliance have not broken the 10,000 threshold for several decades but that could easily change. Tracy Kelly [DUP] is a relatively low-key unknown prospect.

Final Prediction

1^st : Claire Hanna [SDLP]

2^nd : Kate Nicholl [APNI]

3^rd : Tracy Kelly [DUP]

4^th : Áine Grogan [GPNI]

5^th : Michael Henderson [UUP]

6^th : Dan Boucher [TUV]

Belfast West : This is not much to Analyse in this one. People Before Profit should increase their vote count.

Final Prediction

1st : Paul Maskey [SF]

2nd : Gerry Carroll [PBP]

3rd : Frank McCoubrey [DUP]

4th : Paul Doherty [SDLP]

5th : Eoin Millar [APNI]

6th : Ash Jones [GPNI]

7^th : Ann McClure [TUV]

East Derry / Londonderry : Cara Hunter [SDLP] is growing in popularity, however it will not be enough to dethrone the old, grey fox, Gregory Campell [DUP].

Final Prediction

1st : Gregory Campbell [DUP]

2nd : Cara Hunter [SDLP]

3rd : Richard Stewart [APNI]

4th : Kathleen McGurk [SF]

5th : Glen Miller [UUP]

6th : Allister Kyle [TUV]

Foyle : Colum Eastwood [SDLP] is one of the most high-prolific and well-liked politicians in the province. Although Sandra Duffy [SF] is relatively unknown, she might improve on the party’s previous vote count.

Final Prediction

1st : Colum Eastwood [SDLP]

2nd : Sandra Duffy [SF]

3rd : Gary Middleton [DUP]

4th : Rachael Ferguson [APNI]

5th : Shaun Harkin [PBP]

6th : Janice Montgomery [UUP]

Mid Ulster : Sinn Féin have held this seat for many decades and that is highly unlikely to change within July.

Final Prediction

1st : Francie Molloy [SF]

2nd : Keith Buchanan [DUP]

3rd : Denise Johnston [SDLP]

4th : Padraig Farrell [APNI]

5th : Jay Basra [UUP]

6th : Glen Moore [TUV]

Newry & Armagh : The race for 2^nd place between the DUP & the SDLP will be interesting in this constituency. Although 2^nd place means little, It will be exciting for the candidates to build on their future portfolio. I am predicting DUP to finish 2^nd by under 1000 votes.

Final Prediction

1st : Dáire Hughes [SF]

2nd : Gareth Wilson [DUP]

3rd : Pete Byrne [SDLP]

4th : Helena Young [APNI]

5th : Keith Ratcliffe [TUV]

North Antrim : This is probably the safest seat in the country, however Paisley’s vote percentage should definitely decrease.

Final Prediction

1st : Ian Paisley Jr [DUP]

2nd : Jim Allister [TUV]

3rd : Sian Mulholland [APNI]

4th : Jackson Minford [UUP]

5th : Philip McGuigan [SF]

6th : Helen Maher [SDLP]

Upper Bann : Although I am expecting Carla Lockhart [DUP] to win fairly comfortably, Carla’s vote will definitely decrease. Catherine Nelson [SF] could get within 2,000 votes of Carla due to SDLP not fielding a candidate.

Final Prediction

1st : Carla Lockhart [DUP]

2nd : Catherine Nelson [SF]

3rd : Eóin Tennyson [APNI]

4th : Kate Evans [UUP]

West Tyrone : I am expecting Sinn Féin to generate around 60% of the overall vote. SDLP are not fielding a candidate.

Final Prediction

1st : Órfhlaith Begley [SF]

2nd : Tom Buchanan [DUP]

3rd : Stephen Donnelly [APNI]

4th : Matthew Bell [UUP]

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