John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain

To lighten the mood a little during the long UK General Election campaign I thought I might provide a brief update on the PB Prediction Competition.

Firstly, a reminder of the 10 questions that were set, including the answers for those that are settled:

1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 

Answer: 11%, More in Common (7–11 Feb).           

2. Date of the next UK General Election. 

Answer: 4th July 2024.

3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called.

Answer: Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Swinney, Tice*.

4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%).

5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems.

6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner.

7. UK base rate on 31 December 2023.

8. UK CPI figure for November 2023 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%).

9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn).

10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics (2020/21 = 64).

(*For those of you who opted for Farage for Reform – sorry, it’s the leader on the day the GE was called that counts.)

The scoring system:

TSE and I have settled on the following:  Broadly, it’s 20 points per correct answer or 10 points for a close miss and/or the nearest to the correct answer.  However, the judge (TSE) has the discretion to vary the scoring regime, as he sees fit, depending on how the competition pans out (he’s donating the prize after all).

So, how is it going? 

Three questions have been settled as follows:

Q1: 14 people guessed 11% and get 20points, @CD13 gets 10pts for 11.3% and the rest of us get zero.  Harsh but fair.

Q2: Just one person guessed 4^th July 2024 and gets 20 points; no one else got within a month so zero points for the rest of us.

Q3: No one guessed Swinney would be SNP leader, so no one is getting 20 points; 10 points for all those (59 of us) who guessed Sunak, Starmer, Davey and Tice for the other four parties.

Who’s leading the pack so far? 

One entrant correctly guessed the 11% lowest Labour lead and 4^th July for the GE date.  Sadly, that person was scuppered on Q3 by Farage’s tardiness in taking over as Reform leader but nevertheless with 40 points so far @No_Offence_Alan is out in the lead at the moment. 

11 people are in equal second with 30 points each.  If you’ve not scored any points yet take comfort that you’re not alone: 19 entrants are currently on nil points.

With seven questions yet to be answered there’s still plenty of opportunities volatility in the leaderboard but for now, well done @No_Offence_Alan on a great start!

Benpointer