NEW: Two polls this week show President Biden leading Trump by a wide margin among likely voters. Although we should never rely on polls, I’d much rather be Biden than Trump right now:

ABC News 49% to 45% (+4)
NPR/Marist 52% to 47% (+5) pic.twitter.com/INWqQb7Ban

— Jon Cooper ?? (@joncoopertweets) May 6, 2024

The new ABC News/Ipsos poll shows how the population you poll matters.

Among adults, it’s Trump+2.

Among registered voters, it’s Biden+1.

Among likely voters, it’s Biden+4.https://t.co/owlkCQLNIU

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 5, 2024

One of the reasons I am expecting Joe Biden to win this November is that he will get Dem voters out whilst the Insurrectionist-in-Chief and his party of democracy deniers will struggle to do so.

These two polls back this up and why the initial headline figures can be actively misleading and why likely voters might be the ones to focus on.

I suspect during the campaign with more focus on the GOP, Trump, and abortion then Biden’s lead might actually widen further.

Picture: Betfair betting over the last month

TSE