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Month: September 2012

The NHS returns as the Conservative party’s Achilles’ heel

The NHS returns as the Conservative party’s Achilles’ heel

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Ipsos-MORI Tory Ipsos-MORI ratings on NHS drop to pre-Dave levels One bit of polling that I missed before the weekend was a special survey from Ipsos-MORI on which party has the best policies on specific areas. The most striking of the findings, seen in the chart above, was on the NHS which during David Cameron’s time as leader of the Opposition had seen a sharp recovery for his party. Getting over the message that the “NHS was safe” Tory hands…

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Two and a half years in and Labour continues to lose the economy blame game

Two and a half years in and Labour continues to lose the economy blame game

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Tweet 46% say it’s responsible with just 29% blaming the coalition? Amongst the deluge of polling ahead of the Labour conference there’s one set of numbers that should really worry the Two Eds – when asked this week by Opinium for the Observer “Who would you say is most responsible for the current state of the UK economy?” 46% said the last Labour government with just 29% saying the coalition government. A total of 18% said none of these with…

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It’s not a question of whether Obama will win but the size of the victory

It’s not a question of whether Obama will win but the size of the victory

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Tweet All the money goes on Barack winning by a biggish margin The big political betting story of the days has been the activity and movement on PaddyPower’s electoral colllege vote market in November’s White House election. This morning the firm was offering 5/6 that Obama would win 319.5 electoral college votes or above and 5/6 that he’d get below. Given the way the polls have been going in the battleground states this seemed like a great bet. Peter the…

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Who’ll go down least well with voters – EdM or George?

Who’ll go down least well with voters – EdM or George?

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Tweet Is that what the election could come down to? Some elections are won; most are lost. Rarely do the electorate have the luxury of two parties, both of which look like they could offer a strong, competent team which could govern well and lead the country forward in the way it would like. Sometimes they don’t have any and it’s a matter of choosing the least-worst option or opting out altogether. It’s not inconceivable that 2015 may be a…

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How the 47 percent gaffe is killing Romney: The betting and the polling

How the 47 percent gaffe is killing Romney: The betting and the polling

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Follow @MSmithsonPB Betfair Plus the latest RCP averages from the key swing states OHIO (2008: Obama +4.6, 2004: Bush +2.1) VIRGINIA (2008: Obama +6.3, 2004: Bush +8.2) FLORIDA (2008: Obama +2.8, 2004: Bush +5.0) In a new article on the excellent 538 blogNate Silver makes the following observation about the impact of the 47%. “After a secretly-recorded videotape was released on Sept. 17, showing Mitt Romney making unflattering comments about the “47 percent” of Americans whom he said had become dependent on…

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Ed Miliband’s big speech has got to be better than last year’s

Ed Miliband’s big speech has got to be better than last year’s

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Henry G Manson looks forward to the next conference A year ago Ed Miliband gave an alarming performance at Labour party conference. Even thinking about it is traumatic. The speech wasn’t very good, the delivery was worse, delegates booed Tony Blair’s name and the TV feed was lost for several minutes half-way through. All that was needed was for the set to collapse and there would have enough material for a new series of You’ve Been Framed. The conclusion of…

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