Browsed by
Month: February 2010

Will Cameron’s speech prove to be a turning-point?

Will Cameron’s speech prove to be a turning-point?

Comments 0 Comment

Daily Telegraph Will it settle Tory nerves after the narrowing polls? With the opinion polls narrowing significantly in recent days, David Cameron gave what will be his final address to a Conservative conference ahead of the general election, telling his audience that: “It is an election that we have to win because our country is in a complete mess and it is our patriotic duty to turn it around and give this country a better future… I think everyone in…

Read More Read More

Remember this after Brown’s first few weeks?

Remember this after Brown’s first few weeks?

Comments 0 Comment

Does the Guardian make a habit of this? Thanks to ChristinaD on the previous thread for reminding us that the Guardian has form for eulogising over a Prime Minister a few weeks after entering Number 10. Today’s Martin Kettle column on David Cameron follows in the tradition set by the above piece from August 2007 shortly after Gordon Brown became Prime Minister. “Has any Prime Minister had a more difficult first month?” the headline read inviting the obvious response –…

Read More Read More

Tim’s leadership betting tip – Darling at 20/1

Tim’s leadership betting tip – Darling at 20/1

Comments 0 Comment

In a world where politicians continually try and rebrand themselves and define their image in the public’s mind, and pay agencies a lot of money to attempt it on their behalf, last week we saw one of the most successful rebrandings for years. It is commonly presumed that the public saw Alistair Darling as a bit dull, inoffensive, but useful, like magnolia paint or carrier bags. Well, that was on Monday. By Wednesday his “forces of hell” quote had changed…

Read More Read More

Does Labour always win the final week?

Does Labour always win the final week?

Comments 0 Comment

Did Brown’s party recover 30+ seats? In its post mortem of the 1992 election Labour identified a key weakness which it sought to address in all the following four elections – the critical importance of the final week. For its only then that many voters start to focus on what they’ll do and when a focused get out the vote message can be most effective. For the 1997 election the party created a special final week team. Whether they did…

Read More Read More

Why did the Sunday Times switch the numbers?

Why did the Sunday Times switch the numbers?

Comments 0 Comment

? ? ? ? How did the lead drop from 6% to 2% between editions? The massive confusion over what the poll numbers actually were that we saw on the thread overnight is now becoming clear. For after the NOTW reported the 2% gap there were several posts saying the Sunday Times had it at 6%. But the Sunday Times poll findings changed between editions as those who have been watching BBC1 have been told. In the earlier ones it…

Read More Read More

Is the daily survey driving other pollsters away?

Is the daily survey driving other pollsters away?

Comments 0 Comment

Is it healthy that one firm should be so dominant? Consider this:- The last voting intention survey from a firm other than YouGov was from ComRes and completed its fieldwork on June 27th – nearly two and a half weeks ago. There have been thirteen national YouGov polls since then – all but one of for News International which has an exclusivity arrangement with the firm for national papers. The Daily Telegraph has not had a regular pollster since February…

Read More Read More

Daily poll has lead down to just 2 points

Daily poll has lead down to just 2 points

Comments 0 Comment

CON 37% (39) LAB 35% (33) LD 17%(16) Gordon could still get his five more years According to the News of the World the latest daily poll from YouGov has the above figures which would probably mean that Labour would end up with most seats. This has now been confirmed by the Sunday Times itself – story here. This is a fantastic poll for Labour who, almost unbelievably, are now only per percent down on what they were at the…

Read More Read More

So what will tonight bring?

So what will tonight bring?

Comments 0 Comment

Ipsos-Mori Will the lead continue to tighten? It’s Saturday night and that should bring two things – the latest polls and the second instalment of the Andrew Rawnsley book in the Observer. One thing that hits you when you look at the table above is that only the YouGov daily poll has tested opinion since bullygate and the Darling “forces of hell” statement. All the other surveys that have been published this week have been quite old. I’ve no idea…

Read More Read More