Will he really stay on if Labour loses? The big story in the Sunday Times has serious implications for several betting markets if its turns out to be correct. The report opens: “Gordon Brown is making secret plans to stay on as Labour leader after the general election even if his party is defeated. The prime minister has told close colleagues that he will refuse to quit unless the Conservatives win a significant majority. “Gordon has said he believes his…
Mail on Sunday Is Number 10 trying to contain the Rawnsley damage? Late last night the above front page figured prominently in the SkyNews review of the papers which is available online. A couple of hours later. as reported on the last thread, PBers linking to Sky found that the Mail on Sunday’s story had been taken down – see here. Fortunately I had done a screen grab of the SkyNews paper review at 10.34 pm before that happened and…
Is 30% (+MoE) the limit in the current climate? Two events in Spring 2009 gave minor parties a massive boost in the polls. One was the coverage and electoral opportunities afforded by the European elections, the other was the disillusionment with the Conservatives and Labour that resulted from the expenses scandal (the Lib Dems’ poll rating was largely unaffected). After polling around 10% throughout winter 2008-9 with all firms except Comres, who put them a couple of points higher, Others shot up…
Twitter Will this ease the jitters at Cameron Towers? Barely 13 hours after the Telegraph’s YouGov poll (HAT-TIP Sam) showing the Tories lead down to just 7% there’s a new survey just out for tomorrow’s People. The figures are:- CON 40% (38) LAB 31% (31) LD 18%(19) So for the third YouGov poll in a row the Labour shares stays on 31% while the Tories recoup the two points that were lost in the overnight survey. There’s not a lot…
Have the markets got them priced too high? There’s been little reaction overnight on the spread-betting markets to the YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls with Conservative leads of 7% and 8% respectively. These are gaps that take us firmly into hung parliament territory – a situation that’s reached with a Tory seat total of 324. Compare that with the spreads above. SportingIndex at 6am had a range of 350 – 355 seats which is well above the hung parliament threshold and…
CON 38% (40) LAB 31% (31) LD 19%(18) What do we think of the gap going down to just 7% The third of today’s polls, from YouGov for the Daily Telegraph, has the Tories down below the 40 mark at just 38 points – only seven above Labour. If that was the margin on the day then we would certainly expect a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party. Of all the polls that we’ve seen in recent…
We’re now back in hung parliament territory There’s another huge swing in the MORI poll for January that has just been published. This was carried out last weekend but is only being published tonight for tomorrow’s Daily Mirror. These are are figures for the last four MORI polls C43-L26-LD19 – October 18 2009 CON LEAD 17% C37-L31-LD17 – November 15 2009 CON LEAD 6% C43-L26-LD20 – December 13 2009 CON LEAD 17% C40-L32-LD16 – January 28 2010 CON LEAD 8%…
Shall we now stick with Press Association’s “official list”? As I’m sure most PBers will know the next election will be fought in England and Wales on new boundaries. That’s fine except when we try to predict seats for betting an other purposes we need to know what happened last time. And here we can run into some massive confusion because there are at least three sets of 2005 notionals available online and they can all be showing very different…