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Not long to go until those end of year political bets are resolved

30/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What wagers have you got outstanding? At the end of the biggest political betting year ever we’ve still got pile of wagers to be resolved and that won’t happen until midnight tomorrow night. These are ones relating to whether things will or will not happen during 2016. My main one has been on Article 50 not being invoked during 2016 – a bet that saw a fair bit of activity until TMay’s CON conference speech in October when she announced…

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The Netflix series “The Crown” is a must watch for political junkies

30/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

For the past few days I’ve watched all ten parts of the “The Crown” – the compelling big budget series from Netflix which centres on the life of the Queen. One you’ve watched the opening minutes of episode one you become hooked and I can heartily recommend it. What makes this particularly appealing from the the political perspective is the portrayal of the monarch’s relations with the prime ministers and the big political developments that it covers. It is written…

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Local By-Election Review 2016

29/12/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

19 of the 26 LD local council gains since BREXIT have been in places which voted LEAVE Votes cast, change on last time, seats won and change on last time for 2016 Labour 147,049 votes (29% +1% on last time) winning 85 seats (-5 on last time) Conservatives 146,074 votes (29% -2% on last time) winning 97 seats (-33 on last time) Liberal Democrats 76,877 votes (15% +4% on last time) winning 50 seats (+27 on last time) United Kingdom…

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Punters make it a 31% chance that the next general election will be in 2017

29/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I might be wrong but am yet to be convinced On the UK front next year looks set to be dominated by BREXIT – the process of extracting the UK from the EU. Doing this successfully is set to be the defining act of Theresa May’s premiership and even though the referendum decision was more than six months ago we still have little idea what this is going to mean. The PM has managed to keep up her strategy of…

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The winners under First Past The Post should rigidly adhere to election spending laws

28/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The chart above is self-explanatory and illustrates clearly how well the electoral system treated the Tories at the last election and how hard it was on the smaller parties particularly UKIP. General elections are won in the marginal constituencies where clearly the parties focus their resources both financial and people. But the law lays down very strict spending limits on how much can be spent by each party within each seat. Parties shouldn’t be able to buy victory simply because…

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In the other election in Copeland on GE2015 day voters rejected both LAB and CON. A by-election pointer?

28/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With the big Westminster by-election in 2017 set to be the Cumbrian seat of Copeland currently held by Labour it is worth looking at another recent election in the area to get a sense of the voting patterns in the area. Back on general election day in the part of the constituency covered by Copeland non-metropolitan district council voters had for the first time a directly elected mayoral election. Copeland is just one of three such councils in England which…

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Surely Douglas Carswell can’t remain in UKIP for much longer, can he?

27/12/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Just before Christmas, Douglas Carswell UKIP’s sole MP received an interesting present from former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who effectively told Carswell to begat off. Douglas Carswell should not be in Ukip, Nigel Farage has said of the party’s only MP, despite vowing not to interfere in internal politics after stepping down as leader. Relations between Farage and the Clacton MP have soured since Carswell’s high-profile defection from the Conservatives in 2014. “He shouldn’t be in the…

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The big one: Cyclefree announces her awards for 2016

27/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Based on NO polling, focus groups or other quasi-scientific methods The Nicky Morgan Award for Lack of Self-Awareness A difficult one, this, with so many contenders, not least Ms Morgan herself. But in the end this was jointly shared by the EU and Britain. Both displayed monumental self-regard and a total inability to understand that, perhaps, just perhaps, their own behaviour had a teensy bit to do with why they could not get on. The Ken Livingstone Award for Trashing…

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