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Labour: The party that’s too weak to win but too strong to die

2/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

LAB – too weak to win too strong to die. Excellent Fabian Soc report in Guardianhttps://t.co/kqq033vWHk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2017 More good news for Theresa in Fabian society report The first working day of 2017 opens with a gloomy report on Labour’s prospects from the Fabian Society covered in the Guardian. The overall conclusion is that the party could drop to fewer than 150 MPs, driven by difficulties articulating a BREXIT policy, the ongoing Scottish disaster and…

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CON slips 3 and LAB drop to 24% in new YouGov Times poll

2/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The squeeze on LAB from Yellow and Purple continues Unlike the last last parliament when there was at least one poll every single day for more than four years surveyd are now few and far between at the moment. The only regular (monthly or more) Westminster voting polls are coming from just four firms – YouGov, ICM, Opinium and Ipsos MORI. At least individual polls are not having a greater impact. The big picture is the continuation of the sorry…

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2017 opens for Corbyn with top union boss raising doubts about his performance and future

1/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Interesting remarks from McCluskey. The dreaded vote of confidence in Corbyns leadership. Why make the remarks now? https://t.co/wBfpwXDUh1 — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) January 1, 2017 Latest betting on whether JC will survive until General Election Corbyn's chances of surviving as leader now rated at 50% on Betfair. pic.twitter.com/Pi0ohuvZ7c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 1, 2017 Tweet

A look at the next American Secretary of State market

1/1/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images A look at the next US. Secretary of State market by RKRKRK The Betfair market makes Trump’s pick Rex Tillerson an overwhelming favourite at c. 90% to be confirmed by the US Senate. Historically nominees normally make it through – the last Cabinet nominee rejected by the Senate was back in 1989. However nominees also sometimes withdraw from the process- Obama lost 3 nominees that way: Tom Daschle (unpaid taxes), Bill Richardson (investigation for pay-to-play allegations) and…

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A 20/1 tip to start off 2017

1/1/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Why I’m taking the 20/1 on Farage being UKIP leader at the end of 2017 Betway have some specials up on what will happen to UKIP in 2017, the one that caught my attention was Nigel Farage to end 2017 as UKIP leader at 20/1, much like a persistent rash, Nigel Farage regularly returns as the next UKIP leader. Ladbrokes make it 3/1 that Nigel Farage will be the next UKIP leader, so by my reckoning the 20/1 on Farage…

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With 2016 drawing to a close the PB/Polling Matters poll of the year

31/12/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

As we approach 2017, Keiran Pedley reviews the winners and losers of the past year and breaks down the 2016 PB/Polling Matters survey results. Earlier this month we conducted the first annual survey of PB readers and Polling Matters listeners. 657 respondents took part and this post looks at some of the results and I give my own perspective too. We asked everyone about their winners and losers of 2016, biggest shocks, defining moments and the thorny issue of the…

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After a Year of Revolt, what’s in store for 2017?

31/12/2016 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

There might well be scares but there won’t be shocks Few would have predicted twelve months ago that Donald Trump would be about to be inaugurated, that Theresa May would be prime minister and that Paul Nuttall would be leader of UKIP. Those who did should have cashed in nicely. There were straws in the wind for all of these (though most would have anticipated a change of UKIP leader after a Remain win, not a Leave), but the odds…

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NEW PETITION calling for everyone to be able to see a GP within 48 hours needs your support

30/12/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

2017 will be dominated by Brexit but we shouldn’t lose sight of the real pressures facing our NHS, whatever your politics, writes Keiran Pedley Until 2016, I was typical of many thirty-somethings in that I had little need to see my local GP too often. This year that changed. Due to a recurring issue I found myself having to see the GP more regularly. Nothing critical, I’m fine, but this experience opened my eyes to a real problem and prompted…

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