Six times as many LD supporters say they’re concerned about BREXIT than UKIP voters

Six times as many LD supporters say they’re concerned about BREXIT than UKIP voters

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This dynamic could have an impact next Thursday The above chart is based on data from the latest Ipsos MORI issues index and shows the party splits of those, unprompted, naming BREXIT as the main, or one of the the main, issues facing Britain at the moment. As can be seen there is a huge gap between the LDs, with 79% raising it, to UKIP voters where the figure is 15%. The Tory figure is highish well ahead of LAB….

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The return of Butskellism

The return of Butskellism

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On seeing Sarah Bernhardt play Cleopatra a Victorian matron exclaimed: “How different, how very different, from the home life of our own dear Queen!”  Leave supporters might voice similar sentiments about the very different ways in which Theresa May and Donald Trump have chosen to capitalise on their respective ascents to power. President Trump has chosen to lead the nation as he campaigned – divisively, aggressively and with scant regard for longstanding conventions.  His spokesman has pronounced that the president’s…

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Tonight sees biggest round of local by-elections so far this year

Tonight sees biggest round of local by-elections so far this year

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Vote aggregate of the year’s contests so far Bollington on Cheshire East (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 53, Labour 16, Independents 3, Middlewich First 3, Liberal Democrats 2, Nantwich Independents 2, Ratepatyers 2, Bollington First 1 (Conservative majority of 24) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Bollington First 1,743, 1,380 (37%) Conservatives 1,435, 1,403 (31%) Labour 1,006 (21%) Liberal Democrats 511, 427 (11%) EU Referendum Result:…

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Ipsos MORI has LAB, the traditional party of the working classes, 16% behind amongst C2DEs

Ipsos MORI has LAB, the traditional party of the working classes, 16% behind amongst C2DEs

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How long can the red team keep Corbyn at the controls? The latest Ipsos MORI poll is out and has more polling numbers to fuel the Corbyn must go narrative. Perhaps the most striking figures are in the socio economic split featured above with Corbyn’s party trailing by 16% amongst the C2DEs – the working classes. Essentially under the current leadership LAB has lost its core vote. Other data in the poll is hardly encouraging. These are the leader satisfaction…

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Trump’s approval ratings, fake news, leader ratings, and immigration – all in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast

Trump’s approval ratings, fake news, leader ratings, and immigration – all in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi and Harry Carr (Head of Sky Data) to discuss Donald Trump’s approval rating and latest controversies, YouGov polling on ‘Fake News’ and the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey which this week takes a look at immigration (see image above) and the approval ratings of Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and other party leaders including (topically) UKIP leader Paul Nuttall. Our poll on immigration looks to take an in-depth…

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UKIP Stoke Central odds odds fall sharply following the unravelling of Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims

UKIP Stoke Central odds odds fall sharply following the unravelling of Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims

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UKIP now down to 30% chance in Stoke Central on Betfair. Sharp fall following the unravelling of Nuttall's Hillsborough claims pic.twitter.com/M4LEyThH6S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2017 Latest Paul Nuttall leaflet in Stoke Central pic.twitter.com/4nrsAzAj6q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2017

How Labour fights back; or dies

How Labour fights back; or dies

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Embed from Getty Images   Labour probably has one last chance to return to relevancy, writes Joff Wild. Who members choose as the party’s next leader will make or break it. The death of social democracy in Europe, it turns out, has been greatly exaggerated. A look at opinion polls in three of the continent’s four G8 economies shows that the centre-left is competitive and could be governing by the end of the year. That the Democrat party in Italy,…

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The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Central and Copeland

The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Central and Copeland

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As a consequence of Labour right wing MPs deciding to perform the Farewell Symphony through the medium of interpretive dance, political observers have two Parliamentary by-elections to brighten up a dank February. In normal circumstances these would both be easy Labour holds. Yet, following a cascade of money that has no doubt been prompted by Labour’s speleological exploration of new polling depths, the prices offered by the bookies suggest something very different. In Stoke Central, Labour are narrow favourites ahead…

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