Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

Comments 0 Comment

D-Day. The day Doris Day came to Copeland pic.twitter.com/Laa4WYkxVp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2017 https://twitter.com/pgo1980/status/834700676710162432 Copeland Parliamentary by-election (Lab defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result at last general election (2015): Labour 16,750 (42%), Conservative 14,186 (36%), United Kingdom Independence Party 6,148 (16%), Liberal Democrat 1,368 (3%), Green Party 1,179 (3%) EU Referendum Result (estimate): REMAIN 40.15% LEAVE 59.85% Candidates duly nominated: Michael Guest (Ind), Rebecca Hanson (Lib Dem), Trudy Harrison (Con), Ray Ivinson (Ind), Jack Lennox…

Read More Read More

Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

Comments 0 Comment

The final 12 hours of betting on Richmond Park Above is a chart showing the Betfair exchange prices on the day of December’s Richmond Park by-election. As can be seen those who were following the betting for their inspiration would have got it wrong until about 11:30 p.m. At that point, it will be recalled, the TV news programmes started reporting that Labour campaigners were suggesting that the Lib Dems had gained the seat by majority of about 2000. As…

Read More Read More

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

Comments 0 Comment

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:   In part one, Keiran is joined by the former Editor of the Sunday Telegraph, Daily Telegraph and Spectator Charles Moore. Charles is also the authorised biographer of former Conservative Prime Minister Lady Margaret Thatcher and still writes columns for the Telegraph and Spectator today. He spoke to Keiran to give his perspective on the recent Polling Matters / Opinium survey that showed Thatcher as the most popular PM of…

Read More Read More

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

Comments 0 Comment

Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 824 (62% +32%), Conservative 472 (35% -11%), Liberal Democrat 42 (3% -3%) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 352 (27%) on a swing of 21.5% from Con to Lab Chigwell Village on Epping Forest (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 35, Ratepayers 13, Independents 3, Liberal Democrats 3, Green Party 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Conservative…

Read More Read More

Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

Comments 0 Comment

Beckenham Nov 1997. (LAB polls leads 30%+) Eddisbury Jul 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Kensington & Chelsea Nov 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Why the betting markets might be getting Stoke Central and more particularly Copeland wrong Almost ever since the Copeland by-election was declared the Conservatives have been a very strong odds on favourites. As has been pointed out repeatedly for them to take a seat off Labour while being the governing party would be an extraordinary achievement and…

Read More Read More

Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out

Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out

Comments 0 Comment

Next leader to leave – William Hill 6/4 Nuttall (In from 9/4) 6/4 Corbyn 5/1 May 8/1 Sturgeon 12/1 Farron At the weekend I had a bet at 9/4 with William Hill that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader to exit his post. That’s since tightened to 6/4 which still looks a good punt. Clearly amongst the other options Corbyn is most at risk but as we’ve seen he is a stubborn old man and the party rules…

Read More Read More

Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of up to 80 mph

Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of up to 80 mph

Comments 0 Comment

What’s this going to do to the by elections? With 24 hours ago to the crucial by elections in Stoke central and Copeland and the Met Office has issued a warning about the weather tomorrow. As can be seen above things look as though they could be quite nasty and it’s hard to see how this will not impact on turnout. The idea that poor weather can cut the number of participants in elections has been knocked on the head…

Read More Read More

Mega By-Election Week : Day One (February 21st 2017)

Mega By-Election Week : Day One (February 21st 2017)

Comments 0 Comment

This week will see six by-elections but not all on the same day. There is a by-election tonight, three tomorrow night and on Thursday two Parliamentary by-elections that may break a duck that has lasted anything from 35 years to 57 years and create a vacancy at the head of the Opposition. But first, as they say in all the great stage plays, we have the opening curtain Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result…

Read More Read More