Three reasons why I am not betting on an early general election

Three reasons why I am not betting on an early general election

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The Prime Minister says there won’t be one and I believe her One thing that we have learnt about Theresa May since she took over Downing Street last July is that she does endeavour to follow the statement she makes. She has said repeatedly that there will be no election and it would appear highly opportunistic for her to go against that. It would also be out of character. Labour will not vote for one given their double digit polling…

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Labour’s Achilles heel in Manchester Gorton is its faction-ridden local party

Labour’s Achilles heel in Manchester Gorton is its faction-ridden local party

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The by-election selection battle could be bloody A few days ago there was an excellent piece in the Manchester Evening News about Gorton constituency Labour party and the ongoing fights within it between the warring factions. It has been so bad that it has effectively been under special measures for well over a decade and the choice of who’ll take over what appears to be a totally safe seat will bring this out into the open. “Last year a mammoth…

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Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add up

Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add up

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Embed from Getty Images Unionism is at a crossroads. But that crossroads has a clear signpost. The signpost was the 2017 Assembly election. Make no mistake, 2017 was a bad election, indeed a terrible election for Unionism. Of the 18-seat reduction caused by the 2016 Act, 16 were lost by Unionists. But look at why those seats were lost. They were lost because Sinn Fein were able to tap into an angry Nationalist pool of voters, stirred up by the…

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Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t assume a Corbynite replaces him.

Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t assume a Corbynite replaces him.

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Corbyn is safe for now argues Keiran Pedley but with his popularity among Labour members falling and Brexit on the horizon he is unlikely to lead Labour into a General Election. Those of you watching Peston yesterday will know that YouGov has a new poll of Labour members out courtesy of Ian Warren of Election Data. 1,096 Labour members were interviewed last week (27 Feb – 3 Mar) and here are some of the key numbers. The first notable data…

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Macron becomes an even stronger favourite for French President after a huge day of turbulence on the betting markets

Macron becomes an even stronger favourite for French President after a huge day of turbulence on the betting markets

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It has been an extraordinary 24 hours on the betting markets for the French presidency. Everything was hinged on a planned statement that the Republican nominee and one time odds-on favourite, Fillon, had announced he was going to make yesterday evening. His campaign has been troubled for weeks by the investigation into payments of public money made to his British wife in what has become known as Penelopegate. It had been thought that with the police investigation getting tighter that…

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Arron Banks v Douglas Carswell. Let’s get ready to rhumble.

Arron Banks v Douglas Carswell. Let’s get ready to rhumble.

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In yesterday’s Independent Arron Banks, the UKIP donor, said he would definitively stand against Douglas Carswell in Clacton at the next general election, so Paddy Power have a market up on which of those two will receive the most votes at the next general election. If I had to choose I’d go for Carswell to win this bet, because he is very popular in his seat, as evidenced by Carswell holding his seat at the general election unlike the other…

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Les Republicans. You’ve lost that lovin’ Fillon?

Les Republicans. You’ve lost that lovin’ Fillon?

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Fillon puts final decision on his continuing running or not to Républicains party, according to his prepared speech. — Pierre Briançon (@pierrebri) March 5, 2017 Fillon to end speech without saying that he is determined to keep running. Sounds like a resigned farewell, just insisting on his platform — Pierre Briançon (@pierrebri) March 5, 2017 Some Républicains leaders about to offer Fillon a sweetener if he gives up: Juppé would run on his platform. Aka the Frankenstein solution? — Pierre…

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The €60 billion question. The EU exit charge and what it means

The €60 billion question. The EU exit charge and what it means

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Picture: The front page of yesterday’s Times newspaper. Alastair Meeks, who accurately predicted the outcome of the Article 50 case, looks at the looming Brexit divorce settlement. One of the many points that will be up for discussion as part of Britain leaving the EU is what Britain will pay as part of the divorce settlement, if anything.  Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, is reportedly making a demand for €60 billion his opening gambit.  The UK government, backed up by…

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