Local By-Election and Northern Ireland Election Previews : March 2nd 2017

Local By-Election and Northern Ireland Election Previews : March 2nd 2017

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Mudeford and Friars Cliffe on Christchurch (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 19, Independents 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 16) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,900, 1,897, 1,437 (56%) United Kingdom Independence Party 945 (28%) Labour 558, 515 (16%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 12,782 (41%) LEAVE 18,268 (59%) on a turnout of 79% Candidates duly nominated: Fiona Cownie (Green), Sheila Gray (Ind),…

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Another way of looking at how the parties are doing – how successful they are at fundraising

Another way of looking at how the parties are doing – how successful they are at fundraising

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LAB drops to 3rd LAB pushed into 3rd place in the Q4 2016 party donation totals from @ElectoralCommUK . UKIP got just £33k. CON top pic.twitter.com/k6ufeXHbVj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2017 See the difference between the amount of private v public funding received by political parties pic.twitter.com/n7E9EAdu5z — Electoral Commission (@ElectoralCommUK) March 2, 2017 Tweet

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics. The panel discuss the fallout from and historical significance of last week’s by-elections in Stoke and Copeland and what happens next for Labour and UKIP. Keiran introduces polling that shows the significance of Corbyn’s leadership in Labour’s situation as well as polling from YouGov on who might replace Corbyn as Labour leader should he be replaced. Finally, Keiran and Adam unveil…

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The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

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Young, non-white with a huge number of students The following is based on a briefing by David Cowling who writes that the “incomparable House of Commons Library have produced the following summary of 2011 census data for Manchester Gorton constituency” 52.4% of its residents were “White”; this is the lowest for any constituency in the North West, and the 8th lowest for constituencies across the UK outside London (Slough, Leicester South and Leicester East, Bradford West, Birmingham Perry Bar, Ladywood…

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Theresa Maybe? Definitely not

Theresa Maybe? Definitely not

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It’s only eight weeks since The Economist’s cover story but the mood has changed decisively At the turn of the year Theresa May was besieged by many similar opinion pieces, several of them prompted by Sir Ivan Rogers’ resignation on 3rd January. Indecisiveness was the central charge, specifically over Brexit but also with regard to the operation of her Downing Street office and some rushed and/or reversed policy announcements. Her predecessor’s alleged nickname for her – “Submarine” – was used against her in articles…

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Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to Juppe comes to an end

Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to Juppe comes to an end

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Both Fillon and Macron move up in the French President betting following Fillon statement that he's staying in race. pic.twitter.com/60j5cASg4h — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2017 The gamble on Juppe (100/1 this morning, into 8/1 before Fillon spoke) looks to have been foiled. https://t.co/zxwX6a3R3d — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) March 1, 2017 But the problems over his wife’s “jobs” gets more serious There’s been a huge amount of movement in the French Presidential betting following news that the wife of…

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Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the next general election

Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the next general election

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(Source: Prof John Curtice) The referendum vote cut across party loyalties.  While Conservative supporters primarily voted Leave and Labour supporters primarily voted Remain, substantial minorities of both party supporters dissented from their colleagues.  This gives both major parties a potential headache about how to proceed in the wake of the vote, the more so because the British Election Study found in October that people were more likely to identify themselves as Remain or Leave supporters than followers of a particular…

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Betfair moves sharply back to Macron for French President following a run of good polls

Betfair moves sharply back to Macron for French President following a run of good polls

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Over the past week there has been a strong move on the betting markets to the 39 year old independent, Emmanuel Macron, for next French president following a series of polls that have him clearly in the top two for a runoff place. Just over a week ago Macron wasn’t barely managing 20% shares across the board and was being beaten in some surveys by the French Republican Party candidate, Fillon. That changed sharply and the latest batch of polls…

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