His margin was just over 10% Haley did better than the polls and most of the predictions and the idea that this was going to be a knock-out blow for Trump did not quite materialise. Haley is still in this race and the next primary is in South Carolina where she used to be the governor. Mike Smithson
I suspect we are heading for the trigger point for a vote of confidence in Sunak, a vote I expect him to win comfortably because there is no clear replacement but some Tories think following the Australian precedent of replacing a PM every few months is the way to go. TSE
Today, the New Hampshire primary, and possibly the last chance for Nikki Haley remain in the race. I find this totally depressing and one just hopes that something will happen legally that could stop Trump. This is looking more and more like a WH2020 re-re-run. Mike Smithson
“When the curtain falls, it’s time to get off the stage.” So said John Major the morning after the 1997 election, announcing his resignation as Tory leader. But he actually remained leader for another 6 weeks. This was typical of Tory leaders, who have universally remained in post while their leader is chosen. This has remained the case after the change to include the final members ballot, stretching the timetable. Even Liz Truss waiting for Sunak to be chosen by…
We might start having to consider the possibility that not only swingback doesn’t happen but the Labour lead becomes wider between now and the general elections thanks to the relative strengths of the party leaders, particularly if Sunak and the Tories try to make the election campaign a presidential campaign, like Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak might be best off hiding in a fridge. TSE
The Sun famously claimed it had won the election for John Major’s Tories in 1992. Rupert Murdoch later denied that claim, telling the Leveson Inquiry that the ‘Won It’ headline had been “tasteless and wrong”, adding: “we don’t have that sort of power” (although the Mandy Rice-Davies principle applies here of course). The Sun’s 1992 claim has to be filed under ‘Unprovable’, but with the largest UK daily circulation at the time of 3.8m copies, and a relentless anti-Labour campaign…
Introduction In my recent entry in the Measurement series, I was chastised by @Cleitophon who pointed out that he came here for “…brutal empirical analysis about the electoral landscape – not this ephemeral theory…”. It’s a fair point, and one that I share. So, what empirical analysis can my small brain bring you? Let’s try the 2024 Finnish Presidential election, the first round of which is 28 January 2024. Finland What do I know about Finland? Not a lot. I…