This is a three part piece. The first, today, looks at the existential threats that Trump faces that could derail him. The second looks at the national polling, at the third party challengers, and how parties have been performing in real elections. And the final piece looks at the swing states and what is happening on the ground. At the end of which, I will, probably, opine on what Trump’s chances are of becoming the first returning President since Grover…
Today’s budget didn’t feel like a budget that kicks off a general election campaign in the way Norman Lamont’s budget did in 1992 nor George Osborne’s budget in 2015. I suspect we will have an Autumn statement that will kick off the general election campaign. Just look at that Ipsos polling, the Tories need time to turn that around or at least make it less bad, an election in May doesn’t give them that time, particularly if they are stealing…
The most interesting thing to emerge from Super Tuesday, even more so than Trump losing Vermont and Biden losing American Samoa, are the stats in the Tweets above. For a long time on both sides of the Atlantic we have seen headline voting intention figures which have proven inaccurate at an election but the supplementaries indicated why the headline voting intentions were wrong and I wonder if we’re about to see that phenomena occur again in November. Just look at…
This evening the BBC will be showing “Sarah Everard: the search for justice“. It will make grim viewing. There is something troubling about the wish to see a programme about the brutal end of a woman’s life, a woman who will remind many of us of their own daughter, sister, friend, colleague. That it was made with the consent of Sarah Everard’s family is perhaps one reason why it should be watched – to understand why what happened happened, to…
Jeremy Hunt is expected to cut national insurance by 2% in his budget tomorrow but I wonder if that is enough to swing things round for the Tories without extra support for the public services. This budget doesn’t seem to indicate a May election, as the cut will only really be seen in one payslip before a May election. But soaking the hard working higher rate taxpayers seems to be popular. The politics of envy sadly appears to be popular….
One day back in Parliament and George Galloway is throwing a lot excrement at the Labour fan. First there is the offer to Jeremy Corbyn to defect which may appeal to the enabler of a Tory majority but deep I think he is a Labour man at heart and despite his suspension it will be against his natural instinct to stand again Labour at the general election. I cannot see any betting markets on Corbyn to win a seat at…
One of the reasons the PB editorial team love Ipsos polling is that it goes back nearly half a century so we have a lot precedents to compare their polling, which can be occasionally bouncy due to their turnout filter, but their leader satisfaction ratings also help give context. What should alarm Sunak and the Tories are their recording breaking lows, he is polling worse than Truss and Johnson at the time of their nadirs whilst the Tories hit their…
TSE