In the absence of evidence Dutch election punters were far too ready to bet on the hard right PVV

In the absence of evidence Dutch election punters were far too ready to bet on the hard right PVV

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The Betfair betting trend chart The final period polling Is this something we should now factor in? On Tuesday morning in his PB review of the betting on the Dutch election Alastair Meeks wrote this: “..should the PVV be odds-on favourites? In my view clearly they shouldn’t. The polls might be wrong or there might be a last minute swing but there is no reason why either of those considerations should necessarily benefit the PVV rather than another party. From…

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Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview : Three CON defences and a LAB one

Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview : Three CON defences and a LAB one

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Warbreck on Blackpool (Con defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 13 (Labour majority of 16) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,237, 1,197 (37%) Labour 962, 876 (29%) United Kingdom Independence Party 633 (19%) Green Party 250 (8%) Liberal Democrat 237 (7%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 21,781 (33%) LEAVE 45,146 (67%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates duly nominated: Kevan Benfold (Lib Dem), Walter Cairns…

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Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackable?

Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackable?

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After his budget U-turn he’s now joint 2nd favourite to be next cabinet minister out Back in October the Telegraph’s James Kirkup wrote how the Chancellor, Phillip Hammond believed that he was in a uniquely strong position in the cabinet “Mr Hammond is, to almost everyone’s surprise, the most interesting man in the Cabinet. Colleagues say that he calculates that he is, for now anyway, unsackable, and so he has the latitude to challenge Mrs May in a way others…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: SCOTLAND SPECIAL+ more on Northern Ireland)

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: SCOTLAND SPECIAL+ more on Northern Ireland)

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  On this week’s podcast Keiran is joined by Ailsa Henderson, Head of Politics and International Relations at the University of Edinburgh to discuss the prospect of another Scottish Independence referendum. Keiran and Ailsa discuss why Nicola Sturgeon decided to call for a referendum now, what a new campaign would look like, the importance of Brexit, what the polls tell us about who would win and what we can learn from Quebec. Also on the show Keiran unveils some new…

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It looks as though those who bet that the PVV wouldn’t do it in Holland will end up winners

It looks as though those who bet that the PVV wouldn’t do it in Holland will end up winners

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It looks as though the PVV have been beaten https://t.co/f8mBWUvYrZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2017 BREAKING – VOORLOPIGE EXITPOLL: 1. VVD 312. PVV 193. CDA 194. D66 19 Andere partijen, kijk hier: https://t.co/FUYQc0aDbX — RTL Z (@RTLZ) March 15, 2017 ?? #Netherlands | @IpsosNL/@NOS EXIT POLL – seats VVD 31PVV 19CDA 19D66 19GL 16SP 14PvdA 9#tk17 #tk2017 #ikstem #DutchElection — Electogr?fica (@electografica) March 15, 2017 More than 60% of Berfair Dutch election bets had been on the PVV….

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If the PVV do it tonight in the Dutch election it will be another polling miss where the right was understated

If the PVV do it tonight in the Dutch election it will be another polling miss where the right was understated

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Wikipedia British punters stayed with the PVV until yesterday Betdata.io The big political betting event today is the Dutch General Election where the betting prices have been out of line with the polling. British punters appear to have been taking a view that the PVV will do better than the surveys suggest. At one stage Betfair had the PVV at a 71% chance – at 1pm that was down to 34% I took Alistair Meeks’ post yesterday seriously and have…

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The search for the answer to Labour’s woes

The search for the answer to Labour’s woes

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What happens when the focus is on “knocking on doors” John Prescott’s view that Jeremy Corbyn and his top team are “not up to the f***ing job” which earned him a “potty mouth Prescott” headline  in the Mail on Sunday won’t have come as surprise to the Labour leader. I understand that the former deputy Prime Minister has said as much to Corbyn’s face. “You’re not a leader and you never will be while you’ve got a hole in your…

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The Tory MP for Thanet South and his agent have been questioned under caution over their election expenses

The Tory MP for Thanet South and his agent have been questioned under caution over their election expenses

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EXCL: Tory MP Craig Mackinlay interviewed under caution for six hours over South Thanet election expenses: https://t.co/eDhdlnRIQK — Kate McCann (@KateEMcCann) March 14, 2017 The Telegraph are reporting that. Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay was questioned by Police under caution last week over his election expenses, the Telegraph can reveal. The South Thanet MP reportedly spent six hours being interviewed by officers over alleged overspending in the 2015 election campaign in which he beat Nigel Farage and Al Murray, the Pub…

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