Polling Matters review of the week: Immigration, Blair and looking ahead to Copeland and Stoke

Polling Matters review of the week: Immigration, Blair and looking ahead to Copeland and Stoke

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Keiran Pedley reviews the events of last week and looks ahead to a big few days for Labour. On this week’s podcast I was joined by Leo Barasi and Harry Carr of Sky Data. We looked at Trump’s approval ratings in their historic context, YouGov polling for Channel 4 on ‘fake news’ and our latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. Our Polling Matters survey this week was on immigration….

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Betting on whether Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017

Betting on whether Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017

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William Hill have a market up whether or not Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017. It has been a difficult few weeks for her, particularly over the Article 50 votes, so I can understand why William Hill have put up this market. I’ve spent a few hours trying to work out what the best option is, and I still can’t decide. I think if I had to choose I’d take the 3/1 but it…

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Main polling headlines from the US and in the UK

Main polling headlines from the US and in the UK

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Trump slumps to historic approval rating low less than a month after becoming President Latest Gallup Trump approval ratings have him at historic low for a President within a month of inauguration pic.twitter.com/XzwKhltUeD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2017 CON lead over LAB up 6% with Opinium Latest @OpiniumResearch GB Wide Westminster VI poll Con 40 (+3) Lab 27 (-3) UKIP 14 (nc) LD 8 (nc) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2017

YouGov’s BREXIT tracker is back to exactly where it was just after Theresa May became PM

YouGov’s BREXIT tracker is back to exactly where it was just after Theresa May became PM

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For all the machinations opinion simply hasn’t changed Above is YouGov’s BREXIT tracker in which it has been regularly asking the same question “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” over many months.” As can be seen the most striking feature is the almost total lack of movement. In fact the numbers in the latest poll are exactly the same as they were at the start of August 2016 shortly…

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Losses for the LDs and Tories in latest local elections plus preview of one more contest tonight

Losses for the LDs and Tories in latest local elections plus preview of one more contest tonight

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Bollington on Cheshire East (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Bollington First 939 (51% +14%), Conservative 319 (17% -14%), Labour 239 (13% -8%), Liberal Democrat 198 (11% unchanged), Green 162 (9%, no candidate at last election) Bollington First GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 620 (33%) on a swing of 14% from Conservative to Bolington First St. Thomas on Dudley (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 1,466 (61% +4%), United Kingdom Independence Party 653 (27% +5%),…

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Six times as many LD supporters say they’re concerned about BREXIT than UKIP voters

Six times as many LD supporters say they’re concerned about BREXIT than UKIP voters

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This dynamic could have an impact next Thursday The above chart is based on data from the latest Ipsos MORI issues index and shows the party splits of those, unprompted, naming BREXIT as the main, or one of the the main, issues facing Britain at the moment. As can be seen there is a huge gap between the LDs, with 79% raising it, to UKIP voters where the figure is 15%. The Tory figure is highish well ahead of LAB….

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The return of Butskellism

The return of Butskellism

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On seeing Sarah Bernhardt play Cleopatra a Victorian matron exclaimed: “How different, how very different, from the home life of our own dear Queen!”  Leave supporters might voice similar sentiments about the very different ways in which Theresa May and Donald Trump have chosen to capitalise on their respective ascents to power. President Trump has chosen to lead the nation as he campaigned – divisively, aggressively and with scant regard for longstanding conventions.  His spokesman has pronounced that the president’s…

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