NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows & where is the LD surge?

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows & where is the LD surge?

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Adam Payne of Business Insider UK to discuss the political state of play as the General Election campaign proper kicks off. The panel mull over the latest developments in the campaign, including Theresa May’s comments about EU interference in British democracy and Tim Farron’s recent run-in with a Leave voter on the stump. Topics discussed also include the lack of a Lib Dem surge in the opinion…

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TMay’s over-blown anti-Brussels rhetoric might boost her support but there’s a danger it might not

TMay’s over-blown anti-Brussels rhetoric might boost her support but there’s a danger it might not

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Theresa May accuses EU of meddling in UK general election https://t.co/x1MgS5b3TD — The Guardian (@guardian) May 3, 2017 Does anyone seriously believe the EU are thinking, "Leak a bit of gossip to a German paper, Corbyn landslide. After all, it's a tight race" — Michael Deacon (@MichaelPDeacon) May 3, 2017 But the timing’s good – the day before tomorrow’s elections It is very hard to come to a conclusion about TMay’s extraordinary speech in Downing Street after visiting the Queen….

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Day 2 of Osbo’s new job and he’s not being helpful to the woman who sacked him

Day 2 of Osbo’s new job and he’s not being helpful to the woman who sacked him

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Although its now a freebie with a circulation confined to the capital the London Evening Standard is hugely influential in shaping the news narrative – what other parts of the mainstream media come to decide is important. At the moment all eyes are on the paper because of its new editor the ex-MP for Tatton and who until 10 months ago was just about the most powerful person in government excluding the PM. He knows “where the bodies are hidden”…

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Macron moves to a 90%+ chance as another day goes by and his 20% lead holds firm

Macron moves to a 90%+ chance as another day goes by and his 20% lead holds firm

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The time’s running out for Le Pen Latest betting on the French Presidential elections has Macron moving to a 90% chance with the far right Marine Le Pen on 10%. There is not much time left for Le Pen’s hoped for surge to bring about victory. French law imposes a black out on published polls after Friday and the election takes place on Sunday closing at 1900 BST. What is extraordinary about the polling is how all of them have…

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For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how

For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how

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Don Brind explores the options For many years Theresa May’s main claim to fame was her bravery in telling the Tories they’re the Nasty Party. If you doubt that nastiness lives on in Toryland despite the election of the vicar’s daughter look no further than the Defence Secretary Michael Fallon. He is the attack dog whistled up by Lynton Crosby to spread a bit of ugliness. There is no one on the Labour side who specialises in Fallonic thuggery and…

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Mark Pack on the major event that could yet derail this election

Mark Pack on the major event that could yet derail this election

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  The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) is due to make public before polling day its decision on whether to go ahead with prosecuting over thirty Conservatives. This scandal involves not just any old Conservatives, but numerous MPs, senior party officials and even one of Theresa May’s closest and most long-standing advisers. This is not a few members off in some obscure local party who get called “senior” in an effort to make things seem exciting. This is proper senior. So far, the media…

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Get ready for a big psephological debate on Friday on how much you can read in to the locals

Get ready for a big psephological debate on Friday on how much you can read in to the locals

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How much a general election pointer will the locals be? The timing of the 2017 General Election has created an almost unique situation. This is the first time in the modern era when a general election has been called before the May local elections and the campaign period covered those elections. Since 1992 all general elections have been held on the same day as the local elections scheduled for those years. The impact has been that the turnout in the…

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The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority

The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority

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Love this pic.twitter.com/glp8dR7IIS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017 Latest Commons seats spreads from SpreadExCON 385-391LAB 159-165LD 24-27UKIP 0.25-1.25SNP 47-50 https://t.co/maYx85r2DK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017 Latest Commons seats spreads from @SportingIndexCON 386-392LAB 159-165LD 25-28UKIP 0.25-1.25GRN 1-2SNP 46-49 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017