Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier for LAB>UKIP voters to move to the blues

Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier for LAB>UKIP voters to move to the blues

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Dealing with historic CON “nasty party” perceptions We are not hearing the name Lynton Crosby much at the moment but he is playing the central role in the massive resurgence of the Conservatives that we are currently seeing. He is very much a research-based campaigner and takes a lot of notice about the polls and detailed voter profiling that he is so good at. At GE2015 his masterstroke was to exploit the fears that an EdM LAB government would be…

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Professor Steve Fisher – the political scientist who got it right yet again

Professor Steve Fisher – the political scientist who got it right yet again

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So far Steve Fisher's prediction on Tuesday looking pretty good https://t.co/2ELo3ROjN7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2017 My English local elections seats forecast from pollsCon +430Lab -315LD -30 https://t.co/zUExklIRzx — Steve Fisher (@StephenDFisher) May 2, 2017 On Tuesday afternoon professor Steve Fisher who runs the Elections etc website produced his predictions for the locals which were very different from what other academics and analysts were saying. His projected numbers particularly for the LDs ran very much against the narrative….

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Huge CON gains, LAB collapse UKIP wipe out – the story of the night do far

Huge CON gains, LAB collapse UKIP wipe out – the story of the night do far

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Thanks to RobD’s great resource here part is featured above. We have a brilliant tracker of what’s happening. The virtual wipe out of UKIP and the switch of those voters has put the Tories in an extraordinarily powerful position as the numbers shows. This all augurs well for TMay’s party on June 8th. The LDs have put on votes but look set to end as seat losers. The super mayoralty results will mostly come during the day and it is…

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Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

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Today, as well as the elections to the English counties, Scottish councils, Welsh councils (of which I am currently dozing in order to be bright eyed and bushy tailed at anything up to 4.00am tomorrow morning) and the new Metro Mayor elections (not forgetting Doncaster of course), there are 107 local by-elections up and down the country in those areas which do not have any local elections. Now clearly 107 is way too many for a single preview so here…

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Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended

Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended

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There is a whole series of different sets of elections taking place today and the chart focuses on English council seats which were last fought in 2013. Mostly the seats being contested are in the old shire counties so this is not fertile territory for Labour in any circumstances period as can be seen. The Tories completely dominated last time these were fought. 2013 was the third year of the coalition waspretty bad year for the Lib Dems. It was…

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We can learn a lot about TMay’s negotiating style from this chain of events when she was Home Secretary

We can learn a lot about TMay’s negotiating style from this chain of events when she was Home Secretary

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2. Once upon a time Theresa was Home Secretary. One day she had to deal with a request from Jordan for Abu's deportation. — David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) May 4, 2017 3. She was not the first Home Secretary to have to deal with this request. But there was a problem. — David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) May 4, 2017 5. And if so, it was not lawfully open to the UK under ECHR to deport anybody if there was prospect…

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Marine Le Pen goes into the final 2 days behind in every French region except the one most favoured by Brit migrants

Marine Le Pen goes into the final 2 days behind in every French region except the one most favoured by Brit migrants

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The polls gave Macron the final TV debate by a huge margin Although it is polling day in parts of the UK the election that’s attracting the most bets (£25m matched so far on Betfair) is the final round for the French Presidency. Last night we had a marathon but engrossing TV debate between the woman the French courts ruled could be described as a fascist and the 39 year old ex-investment banker who is not linked to any of…

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