Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

Today, as well as the elections to the English counties, Scottish councils, Welsh councils (of which I am currently dozing in order to be bright eyed and bushy tailed at anything up to 4.00am tomorrow morning) and the new Metro Mayor elections (not forgetting Doncaster of course), there are 107 local by-elections up and down the country in those areas which do not have any local elections. Now clearly 107 is way too many for a single preview so here are some of the rather choice ones of those 107.

Maidenblower on Crawley (Conservative defence)
(Crawley constituency is ranked as Labour’s 72nd target of the 94 they need for an overall majority)
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 20, Conservatives 17 (Labour majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservative 1,114 (53%), Labour 508 (24%), United Kingdom Independence Party 486 (23%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 22,388 (42%) LEAVE 31,447 (58%) on a turnout of 73%
Candidates duly nominated: Nigel Boxall (Con), Paul Cummings (Lib Dem), Morgan Flack (Lab), Allan Griffiths (UKIP), Richard Kail (Green)
Estimate: Con HOLD (Con 43%, Lib Dem 22%, Lab 20%, UKIP 12%, Green 3%)

Hall Green (Labour defence) and Perry Barr (Liberal Democrat defence) on Birmingham
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 80, Conservative 29, Liberal Democrat 10, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 40)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 223,451 (49.6%) LEAVE 227,251 (50.4%) on a turnout of 64%

Hall Green
(Birmingham, Hall Green constituency is ranked as the Conservative’s 241st target and would go Con on a swing of 21.06%)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 4,994 (40%), Conservative 2,923 (24%), Liberal Democrat 2,029 (16%), Independent 1,003 (8%), United Kingdom Independence Party 980 (8%), Green Party 390 (3%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 48 (0%)
Candidates duly nominated: Alan Blumenthal (UKIP), Tanveer Choudhry (Lib Dem), Liz Clements (Lab), Gareth Courage (Green), Obaid Khan (Con)
Estimate: Lab HOLD (Lab 38%, Con 26%, Lib Dem 26%, UKIP 8%, Green 2%)

Perry Barr
(Birmingham, Perry Barr constituency is ranked as the Liberal Democrats’ 539th target and would go Lib Dem on a swing of 26.29%)
Result of ward at last election (2016): Liberal Democrat 3,248 (55%), Labour 2,085 (36%), Conservative 338 (6%), Green Party 200 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Matthew Ford (Green), Mohammed Hanif (Lab), Jan Morriam (Lib Dem), Minu Sungu (Con)
Estimate: Lib Dem HOLD (Lib Dem 59%, Lab 28%, Con 10%, Green 2%)

Newport on Uttlesford (Residents defence)
(Uttlesford is part of the Saffron Walden constituency which has been Conservative since 1929 when Rab Butler was the MP)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Residents 9, Liberal Democrats 6, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 7)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Residents 1,028, 1,004 (53%)
Conservatives 624, 601 (32%)
Liberal Democrat 285 (15%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 25,619 (49%) LEAVE 26,324 (51%) on a turnout of 80%
Candidates duly nominated: Anthony Gerard (Residents), Jayne Pacey (Lib Dem), Paul Simper (Con)
Estimate: Residents HOLD (Residents 45%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 24%)

Malvern West on Malvern Hills (Green defence)
(Malvern Hills makes up part of the Worcestershire West constituency, which requires a swing to the Greens of 24.82% to be gained by the Greens)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Independents 7, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3 (Conservative majority of 8)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Green Party 1,421, 1,346 (59%)
Conservatives 968, 747 (41%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 23,203 (48%) LEAVE 25,294 (52%) on a turnout of 81%
Candidates duly nominated: Henry Clarke (Con), Andy Gardner (Lab), Natalie McVey (Green), Dee Tomlin (Lib Dem)
Estimate: Too close to call (Con 37%, Green 30%, Lib Dem 30%, Lab 3%)

Maxton, Elms Vale and Priory on Dover (UKIP defence)
(Dover constituency is UKIP’s 47th target seat and would go UKIP on a swing of 11.51%)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Labour 17, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Conservative majority of 5)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,157, 1,114, 1,039 (36%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,077, 1,035, 976 (34%)
Conservatives 967, 960, 899 (30%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 24,606 (38%) LEAVE 40,410 (62%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Peter McDermott (UKIP), Ann Napier (Lab), Roger Walkden (Con), Graham Wanstall (Ind)
Estimate: Too close to call (Lab 32%, Con 30%, Ind 20%, UKIP 18%)

Harry Hayfield

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