Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call – maybe not a CON landslide after all

Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call – maybe not a CON landslide after all

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Sun Will TMay get her landslide or could the result be a lot tighter? The launching of the Conservative manifesto on Thursday has changed the whole narrative of this election. From a situation where the only real outcome that appeared possible was a very substantial Conservative majority, certainly more than 100, we now have the first post manifesto polls with the gap closing sharply. It was very bold of the Prime Minister and her team to include items within the…

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UPDATED With postal voting just starting CON lead drops

UPDATED With postal voting just starting CON lead drops

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https://twitter.com/Survation/status/866035811719954433 CON lead down to single figures with YouGov Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2017 The ORB Poll for S Telegraph which was carried out BEFORE CON manifesto launch Con 46Lab 34LD 7UKIP 7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2017 Opinium poll carried out BEFORE CON manifesto launch CON 46% -1LAB 33%+1LD 8% =UKIP 5%=GRN 2%= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2017 Still to come…

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Steve Fisher’s model finds betting markets more pro-CON and anti-LAB than other projections

Steve Fisher’s model finds betting markets more pro-CON and anti-LAB than other projections

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Elections Etc At a polling conference ahead of GE2015 Prof Phil Cowley of Queen Mary University told me that it was wise not to doubt Oxford’s Prof Steve Fisher when it came to election numbers. Alas I didn’t take any notice then! Fisher’s calculations were then pointing to a CON majority well ahead of just about everybody else and, of course, he was vindicated. Earlier this month Steve had another good set of elections with the locals and this time…

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Take Care. The implications of the Conservative policy on social care

Take Care. The implications of the Conservative policy on social care

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Embed from Getty Images General elections aren’t usually about big ideas. They’re usually occasions for the parties to try to come up with visual representations of their opponents that sting, for frenetic arguments about trivial events and for their leaders to pose in unlikely photo-opportunities. Voters are expected to react, not to think. So Conservative supporters have reacted with trepidation to the focus on their plans for long term care. This was not an afterthought but a flagship policy, mentioned…

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Download the Rallings and Thrasher Election 2015 book for FREE

Download the Rallings and Thrasher Election 2015 book for FREE

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Your essential reference for election night The leading psephologists, Profs Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, are making their reference work on last General Election, Election 2015 Results and Tables, available online so people can download it. It is in PDF format and runs to 437 pages. This is a great resource which I’ve got permanently open in a window on my laptop as well as on my phone. The book can be downloaded here. Their website, The Elections Centre, is…

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Remember that standard GE2017 polls are for GB only and exclude Northern Ireland

Remember that standard GE2017 polls are for GB only and exclude Northern Ireland

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Your cut out and keep guide With 20 days to go it is time for my regular general election reminder to punters betting on vote shares. The standard voting intention surveys that we see are, unless stated otherwise, for Great Britain only and exclude Northern Ireland. This is because politics in the province operates with a very different party structure and generally GB based parties do not compete. So the key numbers with which to compare new polls and to…

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Looking at Labour’s share of the vote in the polls and what it means

Looking at Labour’s share of the vote in the polls and what it means

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Wikipedia GE2017 poll chart All the mood music is pointing one way. Both Labour and Conservative sources suggest a meltdown in Labour’s heartlands. The Conservatives have put out rumours that they are trying to take seats such as Leeds East, West Bromwich East and Bolsover. If they were to succeed, Labour would be reduced to a rump. Conventional wisdom has it that the Conservatives are hoovering up the UKIP vote in Labour heartlands and taking a fair chunk of Labour…

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Local By-Election Preview May 18th 2017 (T-21 days until Election 2017)

Local By-Election Preview May 18th 2017 (T-21 days until Election 2017)

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Reeth and Arkengarthdale on Richmondshire (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 21, Independents 7, Richmondshire Independents 4, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Result of ward at last election (2015): Ind 544 (76%), Green 116 (16%), Lab 56 (8%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 11,945 (43%) LEAVE 15,691 (57%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Ian Scott (Con) Result: Conservative GAIN from Independent, unopposed Enfield Lock on Enfield (Lab…

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