CON lead down to 5% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/udkAz2lgyv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2017 There’s a new Times/YouGov poll that has LAB just 5% behind the Tories which s by far the smallest we have seen this year. To put this into context David Cameron won his majority in 2015 with a GB vote lead over LAB of 6.5%. This poll suggests that that could be narrowed. This latest poll was carried out yesterday and today and so fully…
Shoeburyness on Southend on Sea (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 25, Labour 11, Independents 10, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Liberal Democrats 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2016): Independent (Assenheim) 728 (29%), Conservative 607 (24%), Independent (Chalk) 527 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 309 (12%), Labour 236 (9%), Green Party 57 (2%), Liberal Democrats 50 (2%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 39,348…
With the campaign starting to get underway again it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that we have a dearth of up to date polling. There’ve only three national surveys that were carried out after the CON manifesto launch last week. These have been ICM and the Survation online poll for the Mail on Sunday and the phone one for Good Morning Britain. We’ve also had the YouGov Wales poll which had LAB with a bigger margin over CON than EdM’s…
The appalling events of Monday evening are dominating the election campaign. Young children and teenagers should be able to attend a pop concert without fear of being killed. I struggle to understand the mind of a man that can choose to inflict so much pain and suffering on so many young people and their families. Feelings are understandably running high: grief, anger, outrage and despair are mingled. Security is a primal concern. The knowledge that there are people who walk…
Corbyn, May and the others are avoiding proper scrutiny One of the main functions of an election campaign is to ensure that those who seek to govern us are subject to proper scrutiny something that is much easier to avoid in non-election periods. TMay didn’t enjoy her inquisition by Andrew Neil on Monday night and I’ve little doubt that the other four who are due to be questioned are looking forward to their appearances with some trepidation. This is quite…
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour’s recent poll surge is ‘real’ and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close. Later in the show, Keiran…
Don Brind looks at landslides past I have a soft spot for Lib Dem peer Dick Taverne even though I cut my teeth as a Labour Party press officer trying to end his political career. His letter to the Guardian this week struck a chord. “Mrs May is riding high, apparently heading for a general election triumph, idolised by the tabloids for defying those beastly Europeans who seek to do Britain down. Today’s winners often end up as tomorrow’s losers,”…
Several people have been asking if Friday’s PB gathering is still going to take place. The answer is yes. It will start at the Lord Raglan pub, 61 St Martins le Grand, St Pauls EC1A 4ER from 6.30pm. An area downstairs called the Fireplace has been booked. As well as being close to St Paul’s the Lord Raglan is only minutes walk away from Farringdon and City Thameslink stations with their direct links to Gatwick and Luton airports, Brighton and…